Why the conflict in Sudan poses a threat to the entire region

Between the threat of a lasting civil war, the risk of intervention by powers and armed groups in the region and a possible migration crisis, the conflict in Sudan threatens to further weaken an already very unstable region.

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Sudan plunged into chaos a week ago, hostage to fighting between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, army chief and de facto ruler of Sudan since the 2021 putsch, and his number two Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

But the conflict can quickly spill over, say the experts consulted by AFP.

First refugees

Between 10,000 and 20,000 people have fled the fighting for neighboring Chad, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Eastern Chad already hosts more than 400,000 Sudanese refugees and “the new arrivals are putting additional pressure on the country’s already overstretched public services and resources”, adds the UNHCR.

At the end of February, the UN was already saying that more than a third of the population in Sudan would need humanitarian aid in 2023, due to hunger and the increase in the number of displaced people.

“I really expect a mass exodus of millions of civilians at the first ceasefire,” Cameron Hudson, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, told AFP.

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Geographical extension of the fighting

The fighting, which began on April 15, is spreading day by day. New neighborhoods in Khartoum and new parts of the country, notably in Darfur, are being sucked into a conflict that has been simmering for months.

“Millions of civilians are caught up in the fighting and are rapidly running out of basic necessities,” writes the NGO International Crisis Group.

According to her, “the conflict could quickly slide into a real lasting war”, contaminating the outskirts of Sudan, already bloodless, then some of its neighbors.

For Cameron Hudson, “the challenge is that the conflict, because it extends to every corner of the country, touches the border with Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. It’s a huge concern.”

• Read also: In Sudan, civilians flee between the corpses to escape the fighting

Spiral

Sudanese society, extremely fragmented, cannot remain a spectator. “If the conflict continues, the situation will become more complicated,” predicts British researcher Alex de Waal, in a memo sent to AFP.

“Each party is itself a coalition of different groups” which “will attract or co-opt other smaller groups”, he specifies, referring to the possible emergence of “ethnic factors”.

Islamist groups are also involved.

The New York-based Soufan Center notes “interference by foreign states, warlords, armed militias and a variety of other violent non-state actors.”

According to him, “a failure of commanders to hold their soldiers could continue the violence”. A particularly great risk on the paramilitary side, keep repeating the experts.

The region in danger

The regional powers are all officially calling for an end to the fighting, but experts converge to say that Egypt supports Burhane and the United Arab Emirates Hemedti.

According to Cameron Hudson, the two generals are trying to draw arms and reinforcements from their neighbors. The Russian paramilitary group Wagner, whose military footprint is weak in Sudan, but which exploits its gold mines, is also discreetly at work.

“There is propaganda work” on social networks, but also “military organization and intelligence” for Hemedti, assures the researcher.

Libya, the Central African Republic, Chad and Ethiopia in particular are also likely to play a political or even military role.

The conflict would then involve actors providing “money, weapons or even their own troops or cronies”, fears Alex de Waal. “Most of these same outside actors who fish in troubled waters will be involved in mediation efforts. »

Incapacity

“Sudan’s instability is a concern for everyone, especially for neighboring countries, the Horn of Africa, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the entire geographical neighborhood”, summarizes Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, professor of political science Emirati.

“If Sudan enters a dark tunnel, everyone will pay the price,” he said.

The international community has tried to act: since the beginning of April, negotiators from the UN, the African Union, Western capitals and the Gulf in particular were pushing the two men to sign a framework agreement for the return to civilian power. .

In vain. Many experts underline how much the negotiations in recent years have strengthened the protagonists in their positions.

From now on, “the international community and the major powers call the generals to ask for a ceasefire and obtain nothing”, notes Cameron Hudson.

And a quick military outcome seems unlikely. If Burhane’s army appears more solid militarily, Hemedti’s men excel in urban guerrilla warfare. The ingredients are there for a lasting conflict.

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