Tax collection increased in March below inflation for the third consecutive time

The intense control tasks of the AFIP, in its three levels, tax, customs and worker registration, contributed to alleviate the drop in income from activity and withholdings

The tax resources reported by the AFIP through its three major sources, DGI, Customs and Anses, totaled $2.31 trillion last March, and despite the fact that it meant a nominal increase of 88.3% compared to the amount that the registered a year earlier, was located for the third consecutive time in the last 28 months below the inflation rate, which in the month in which most of the tax base was generated was 102.5 percent.

According to the analysis of the AFIP technicians: in disaggregated terms, most of the taxes presented year-on-year variations above the average: VAT (120.6%), Social Security System (113%), Credits and Debits in bank checking accounts (122.1%), Personal Assets (166.8%) and ‘other taxes -Monotributo, mainly- (111%). For their part, Import Duties and Statistical Rates (71.4%) were below the average, while income from the Transfer of Total Fuels (9.6%) and Export Duties fell in nominal values ​​(down 64.6 percent)”.

With the inflation rate accelerating at a rate much higher than that of the rise in salaries and pensions -both compared to the previous month, and even more so compared to a year earlier-, the economic effects of the drought in the last agricultural-livestock campaign (“the worst in history in volume, and even more in value of its contribution to the generation of exports and liquidation of withholdings”, according to what is highlighted in Economy), which determined a general cooling of the production and sales of the economy in its As a whole, with some exceptions, such as the assembly and patenting of automobiles, it was not surprising that in March the third consecutive drop in tax collection in real values ​​was registered.

In any case, the effect of the intense control tasks of the AFIP stands out, in its three levels, tax, customs and worker registration, they contributed to alleviate the drop in income by activity and withholdings on exports, particularly of agricultural origin , which made it possible to sustain the rebound in what was received from VAT, at a higher rate than expected due to the variation in domestic consumption in quantities; and by the Tax on Bank Debits and Credits.

The technicians of the collecting agency highlight in their report to the press: “It is noteworthy, within VAT and Profits, the subheadings of these taxes collected in internal activity (VAT Tax and Tax Profits), increased 157.4% and 100, 9%, respectively. In particular, the VAT together with the evolution of Credits and Debits in Account. Cte. (122.14%) realize that internal activity remains at relatively high levels”.

However, there is no indicator of official activity, nor private, such as the mood of families, that supports separate growths in real values ​​of 27.1% in VAT tax (on national production), or added with the sale of imported 11%, or even on bank transactions that show growth above the inflation rate of 9.7%, in the intermonthly comparison, nor of 22.2% and 4% in the interannual comparison.

There is no indicator of official or private activity, such as the mood of families, that supports two growths in real values ​​of 27.1% in VAT, and 9.7% in Check Tax

And the official analysis adds: “If customs resources are excluded from the analysis (which include taxes on Export Duties, Import Duties, Statistical Rate and the perceptions made in Customs of VAT, Profits, Domestic and Fuels), the collection of March would have grown 121.1% year-on-year”, equivalent to an increase in real values ​​of 9.2 percent.

Clearly, an improvement in control is perceived, such as in compliance with the “payment facility plans” -in VAT they contributed an additional $42,212 million in the month-. This phenomenon can be seen when comparing the variation of the set of tax resources in real terms with that registered by aggregate economic activity, according to data from the EMAE of Indec up to January 2023, and the preliminary IGA from Estudio Ferreres.

The first quarter of 2023 closed with tax resources totaling $6.73 trillion, up 88%, well below the inflation rate for the period, which averaged 98.8%, meaning a decrease in real values ​​of 5.4 percent.

“In March, transfers of co-participation resources grew 2% in real terms. This is mainly due to VAT, which exhibited a noticeable increase of 7.4%, while Earnings fell 3.8% in real terms. This data is added, in 2023, to the mixed result of the previous months: January reflected a slight increase of the order of 0.1% yoy, while, in February, transfers by co-participation fell 3.3% yoy in real terms” , highlights the report from CEPA (Argentine Center for Political Economy), chaired by Hernán Letcher.

The Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf), led by Nadín Argañaraz, estimated an even greater growth in co-participating resources: “The National Government sent the consolidated provinces plus CABA $781,941 million for co-participation, complementary laws and compensation, compared to $376,906 million sent during the same period of the previous year. In other words, a nominal variation of 107.5% was observed. Discounting the inflationary process of the period, this would translate into a real increase of 2.2%. This rise is mainly explained by the real increase in VAT collection of the order of 7.6% year-on-year”.

And Iaraf adds: “In March 2023, the National Government sent the consolidated provinces plus CABA $57,459 million, compared to $33,251 million sent during the same period of the previous year, for complementary laws and compensation. That is, a nominal variation of 73% was observed. Discounting the inflationary process of the period, this would translate into a real fall of 14.9 percent”.

The accumulated result of the first quarter was neutral in real values ​​in comparison with the turns of the same period of the previous year

When considering the situation province by province, CEPA warned that “all the provinces exhibited an increase in their resources of national origin measured in real terms. At the extremes were located Buenos Aires with a slight increase (0.2%) and Río Negro and Santa Cruz with 4% in both cases”.

The accumulated result of the first quarter was neutral in real values ​​in comparison with the transfers, automatic transfers by co-participation, complementary laws and compensations, of the same period of the previous year, totaling $2.23 trillion.

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