The Frente de Todos bets on a victory that has Cristina Fernández as a candidate
The unusual and outdated theory of banning Cristina did not convince anyone. The surveys carried out by the closest collaborators of the Vice President indicate without a doubt that not even the religious fanatics of ultra-Kirchnerism are convinced of the strategy that she tried to match with Juan Domingo Perón. Nor did it help much that the chief of staff, Agustín Rossi, and the security minister, Aníbal Fernández, publicly downplayed the myth of the ban.
The truth is that Cristina Kirchner was sentenced last December to six years in prison for committing fraud against the State in the Highway case. Kirchnerism provided the visionary and entrepreneur Lázaro Báez with 86% of the public works in Santa Cruz and made him a millionaire at the same rate that the Kirchners grew rich. But the Vice President may be a candidate for whatever she wants until the day the Chamber of Cassation and the Supreme Court confirm her sentence. And that could only happen in two years. The only truth is reality, said Perón.
While distracted Kirchnerists and activists who follow the directives without ever subjecting them to honest evaluation get drunk on the stun gas of the ban, the more realistic leaders have begun working on the next goal. Cristina is already preparing for the inevitable candidacy for senator for the province of Buenos Aires. To survive politically, Kirchnerism needs the Buenos Aires savings banks.
The ruling party settles its differences and analyzes which are its best candidates for each territory
It may interest you: The main political leaders of the ruling party and the opposition wrote a collective letter for the ten years of Pope Francis
And Axel Kicillof’s candidacy for governor alone is not enough to win. They need Cristina’s name to stand out on the ballot, in larger letters than the rest of the candidates. “If she’s not on the ballot, she’s going to cost a lot more to get people to vote and get prosecutors on Election Day,” admits one concerned camper.
The other factor that pushes Cristina’s candidacy for senator is the pressure from the mayors of the Buenos Aires suburbs. Most of them, even those who love her the least, admit that with the Vice President on the ballot, the electoral floor from which they must start is notoriously higher. And nobody wants to risk a defeat in each of their districts in an election that for the Frente de Todos is going downhill.
The cost that the Barons of Greater Buenos Aires must pay is to flood the lists of legislative candidates (provincial national deputies and senators, councilors in the municipalities) with names from La Cámpora or Kirchnerists who come with Cristina’s blessing. “It is a high cost, excessively high, but losing is much worse,” makes the calculation of one of those mayors.
Kirchneristas, camporistas and also the followers of Sergio Massa in the province regret the angry and frantic speech that Cristina gave on December 6, as soon as she found out that she was sentenced to six years in prison. It is that the Vice President not only criticized the ruling of the judges of the Federal Oral Court 2. she also anticipated that she was not going to be a “candidate for anything”.
The unusual and outdated theory of banning Cristina did not convince anyone (Franco Fafasuli)
It may interest you: After the launch of the CFK 2023 “operative outcry”, Scioli launches his presidential plan in the suburbs and the electoral discussion heats up
Above all because, now, the campaign strategists who work with Cristina must find the arguments to counteract the skids of that day of nerves and political lack of control. With the Vice President on the campaign trail, they will have to find a way to cover up those angry mistakes.
1.- Cristina said that she would not be a candidate “for anything” because the judicial sentence was a mechanism to proscribe her.
2.- She explained, in a mocking tone that quickly turned her into a meme on social networks, that she was not going to allow her adversaries to call her “the doomed candidate…”.
3.- She also said that day that she was not going to accept being attacked in campaign debates by stating that she was an electoral candidate just to have parliamentary privileges to protect her from investigations into complex crimes.
4.- At that time, he had also rejected criticism for the alleged claim to maintain control of the Senate. She could extend that domain if she is elected senator (she would achieve it without major problems), or if she locates one of her trusted people as a candidate for the Vice Presidency and they achieve victory, a hypothesis that is becoming more and more doubted.
Cristina, and also Máximo Kirchner, maintain a good relationship with Sergio Massa, whom the Vice President assesses as the only leader of the Frente de Todos who could give battle to the opposition candidates and fight for the Presidency. Ultra-Kirchner senator Anabel Fernández Sagasti is one of the candidates with the best chances in a formula with the minister.
The alternative candidate to Massa that Cristina does not rule out could be Daniel Scioli, currently the Argentine ambassador in Brasilia. Not only because he had a very decent defeat in 2015 (he lost in the runoff by 2.5% to Mauricio Macri), but because he would also have the endorsement of Alberto Fernández himself.
Within the Frente de Todos Alberto Fernández seeks a place in the PASO to get to the elections on a good footing (REUTERS / Tomas Cuesta)
It may interest you: Javier Milei gathered a crowd in Chubut
But the President also has his own myths and fantasies. Just as Cristina imagines formulas in which Sergio Massa or Daniel Scioli can try for a presidential opportunity, he also believes that he can run for re-election in October. “With Alberto a candidate, we run the risk of Milei (Javier) growing too much and ending up taking us out of the ballot,” Cristina told her supporters. She will do everything possible to force Alberto to get off the PASO. It is not easy to convince someone whose only strength at present is that he can personally sign the decrees. “I’ll get off when they have a better one than me”, is the defiant message that she returns from the Casa Rosada.
Nor are things easy to reach an electoral agreement with Massa as a possible candidate. This Tuesday, the Minister of Economy will face the inflation rate for February (estimated a few tenths above 6%). And furthermore, he will become the first financial manager to have to deal with annual inflation in excess of triple digits since 1991.
To this bleak picture with the cost of living, Massa must add the complexity of a global financial organization. The intransigence of the International Monetary Fund is hindering the possibility of the organization making the monetary reserve goals of the Central Bank more flexible. The agreement with the IMF indicated that Argentina should maintain compliance with the Central Bank’s reserve targets and the fiscal deficit reduction targets. At the end of this month, it should have some US$7.8 billion. It is more than clear that he will not get them.
In Washington, where Deputy Minister Gabriel Rubinstein and Leonardo Madcur’s secretary traveled and stayed, there has so far been no announcement from the IMF. An economist who works with Massa has told the minister that the difficulty for the IMF to approve this waiver (sorry) now seems tied to the government saying how and where they are going to cut spending to reduce the fiscal deficit. Otherwise, there will be no possible flexibility with the reserves of the Central Bank.
The anger over Argentina’s serial non-compliance with the IMF does not only nest among the directors of the organization. The shareholders (the countries that make it up and, above all, the US) have also been auditing the economic variables of Argentina for a few days. The sanction of the retirement moratorium in Congress was evaluated in the Monetary Fund as a message from the Government that there is no intention of reducing the fiscal deficit in any way.
The alarm signals are multiplying in Kirchnerism. Opinion polls indicate that the possible candidacies of Wado de Pedro or Máximo Kirchner are not competitive at all. As soon as Axel Kicillof emerges from the general collapse of space and becomes an alternative in case he is accompanied on the ballot with her as a candidate for senator.
The objective of putting Kicillof and Cristina on the same ticket is to reinforce the Frente de Todos ticket. They believe that the election for governor of Buenos Aires is going to be fierce, and that Cristina’s presence can help them retain the Governorship where they should face deputy Diego Santilli (Horacio Rodríguez Larreta does not prevail in the presidential dispute) or some of the candidates that can be see benefits if the one that triumphs in the primaries of Patricia Bullrich (there the possibilities of the mayor Néstor Grindetti, Joaquín de la Torre or Javier Iguacel grow, although there are those who believe that Macri can impose the figure of Cristian Ritondo on Bullrich).
These are the days in which Cristina begins to lower the sails of the failed attempt to consider herself an outlaw. And she goes back to the sources. As in 2017, she would head an electoral list again. In this case, the list of senators for the province of Buenos Aires.
Last Friday, Cristina gave an extensive talk to respond to the judges who sentenced her. At the National University of Río Negro, she tried to regain centrality. That role that, until some time ago, paralyzed the country. That effect no longer exists. Her interest in her tribulations has been waning and the power of the judicial sentence did the rest.
Peronism, with a Stockholm Syndrome that has been going on for twenty years, still does not dare to confront Cristina Kirchner. Barely any hint of renewal that the Cordovan governor, Juan Schiaretti, seems to want to lead, along with other leaders who have pending accounts with the Vice President.
Little, too little to change a course that makes water everywhere. The only certainty for the Front of All is Cristina. And Peronism will put her back on the ballot because she doesn’t have more attractive options.
Because it’s a drifting ship and it desperately needs a signal that will allow it to survive.
Javier Milei gathered a crowd in ChubutAfter the launch of the CFK 2023 “operative outcry”, Scioli puts his presidential plan in motion in the suburbs and the electoral discussion heats upThe main political leaders of the ruling party and the opposition wrote a collective letter for the ten years of Pope Francis
Leave a Reply