Canberra’s deal with Washington and London

Big show, this Monday, March 13, on the docks of the American naval base at Point Loma in San Diego. US President Joe Biden will welcome British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese aboard the USS Missouri submarine for an Aukus alliance summit. A year and a half after the cancellation of the contract for the acquisition of 12 French conventionally powered submarines manufactured by Naval Group, after eighteen months of negotiations between Washington, Canberra and London, a three-stage plan for the construction of nuclear attack submarines (SNA) will be announced.

The agreement concluded between the three countries should allow Australia to replace its six old diesel-powered submarines (of the Collins type) but it promises to be complicated to implement. Everything should start by 2027 with the rotation of American Virginia-type submarines in the port of Perth, in Western Australia. Then, in the 2030s, Canberra is expected to buy five used Virginia-class American SNAs. For the price of around $3 billion each. Canberra would also finance, up to a billion dollars, the increase in the production capacities of American shipyards (Huntington Ingalls, General Dynamics Electric Boat).

Finally, in the years 2040-2050, Australia will finance the construction, probably partly in Adelaide, of a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines, the Submersible Ship Nuclear (SSN) Aukus, of British design, but with an important American technological contribution. The United States will also provide the fissile material, Australia excluding the need to acquire a civilian nuclear industry and, a fortiori, nuclear weapons.

Questions about financing and production capacities

Many questions have not been answered, starting with funding – more than 100 billion dollars committed by Australia – and the ability of American and British manufacturers to meet needs. The two American companies concerned, Huntington Ingalls and General Dynamics Electric Boat, are unable to meet orders from the US Navy which involve producing two submarines a year in the Newport News shipyard (Virginia).

Australia will also have to develop its level of expertise in the construction, maintenance and operational management of nuclear-powered submarines. Mixed crews of Australian and American sailors are expected to man Virginia-class SNAs patrolling Australian waters.

Towards a “Frankenstein” navy?

Even if all goes according to plan, Australia risks ending up with a “Frankenstein” navy, equipped with nuclear submarines from two different countries, a potential nightmare for the training of workers, technicians and submariners, the parts spare parts and reactor maintenance. “Australia, which has never operated a nuclear-powered submarine, now plans to operate two different classes,” said James Acton, researcher at the Carnegie Foundation.

Beyond submarines, this unparalleled sharing of technology between the three countries will stimulate innovation, develop their industrial capacity and deepen their strategic coordination.

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