Did Belarusian Partisans Destroy Valuable Russian Airplane?

Have the Belarusian “partisans” just succeeded in their biggest clandestine operation since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? For the past week, the Belarusian opposition in exile has been claiming the destruction of a major Russian airborne detection and command plane at Matchoulishchy airfield, near Minsk, the country’s capital.

The attack was claimed by the Bypol group, a clandestine network of former members of the Belarusian security forces who joined the opposition in 2020, the year during which a popular movement of unprecedented scale nearly dethroned the indestructible president. Alexander Lukashenko. According to its leader Alexander Azarov, the operation had been in preparation for several months, and would have been carried out on the morning of Sunday February 26 by means of two civilian drones converted into “kamikaze drones” capable of each carrying “the equivalent of 200 grams of TNT”.

According to Franak Viatchorka, one of the main advisers of Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, figurehead of the Belarusian opposition in exile, the attack was carried out by two Belarusian citizens who have since left the country. If he does not specify which plane was the target of the attack, he indicates that the cost of the device would be 330 million euros. According to Bypol, it would be an A-50 surveillance and command aircraft, of which the Russian army would not have more than a dozen copies. These devices carrying an imposing circular radar on their backs play an essential role in coordinating Russian air strikes on Ukraine.

Avoid direct engagement in Ukraine

Since the start of the invasion, Belarus has played the role of a formidable rear base for Russia. This state vassalized by Moscow allows it to ensure the logistical support of its army, to launch air raids on Ukraine, to train and treat its troops, and to pose the constant threat of a new offensive, forcing Ukraine to deploy thousands of troops to its northern border.

What is the extent of the damage to the aircraft? Satellite images showing the airfield shortly after the attack show different shades of color on the cabin of the A-50, without making it possible to estimate the operating capacity of the device. The Belarusian investigative site Hayoun, however, indicates that the plane flew on Thursday March 2 for the Russian city of Taganrog, where there is an aeronautical repair factory, indicating an at least temporary decommissioning.

By publishing a “reconnaissance” video on March 2 showing a drone flying over Matchoulishchy airfield and landing on an A-50 plane before leaving, the Bypol network, on the other hand, gave credence to the idea that it is fully responsible for the attack. Several observers are wondering about the possibility that Ukraine supported or even led the operation.

Shortly after the attack, political scientist Artiom Chraïbman pointed out on Telegram that all the protagonists in the affair had an interest in blaming the Bypol group: the organization finds in it an opportunity to increase its prestige, while the Ukraine avoids giving Belarus an opportunity to retaliate. As for the Belarusian president, “Lukashenko would especially not want to find himself in the situation of having to respond to a Ukrainian strike on Belarus”. Because if he remains Russia’s best ally, the master of Minsk is above all keen to preserve his hold on the country, which nothing would threaten more than a direct engagement in the war in Ukraine.

Upmarket

Reached by La Croix, analyst Pavel Slounkine does not believe that kyiv is involved. “Ukraine has been struggling since the beginning of the invasion to spare Lukashenko so as not to provoke him, the Ukrainians are staying away from Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, and they are maintaining a channel of communication with the Belarusian security services, so that does not does not seem coherent, “said this former Belarusian diplomat, who also recalls the previous actions of Belarusian “partisans”. In February and March 2022, several dozen railway sabotages had contributed to degrading the logistics of the Russian offensive on kyiv.

The attack on the Matchoulichtchy aerodrome undeniably marks a move upmarket, in comparison with these previous actions against the rail network. However, Pavel Slounkine does not think that it foreshadows an intensification of the actions of Belarusian supporters. “This operation shows that the movement is still alive, and that it has experienced people in its ranks, but it is only an attack. I think Moscow will pay more attention to the safety of its planes in the future. »

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