Senamhi meteorologist explains how the rains will affect various parts of the country. channel N
Six years after the scourge of the Coastal Child in Peru, it is increasingly likely that this weather phenomenon will occur this year due to the high temperatures and heavy rains forecast on the northern coast of Peru.
Piura will be declared an emergency due to heavy rains six years after the scourge of the Coastal Child
The announcement was made by the Defense Ministry, chaired by Jorge Chávez, to take urgent prevention actions in the next 48 to 72 hours
In this sense, the Multisectoral Commission of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) changed the status of the alert system from ‘Not active’ to ‘Coastal El Niño surveillance’, since there is a greater probability that the abnormal warming observed will continue. between the remainder of the summer and, for now, until mid-autumn 2023.
Likewise, the entity attached to the Institute of the Sea of Peru (Imarpe) explained that this change of alert is due to the recent evolution of ocean-atmospheric conditions in the extreme of the eastern equatorial Pacific, which includes the north and center of the Peruvian sea. , and the forecast of warm kelvin waves that would arrive between March and May.
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The definition of ‘coastal El Niño monitoring’, according to the models and observations, using expert criteria in a collegiate manner, the ENFEN Committee estimates that it is more likely that a coastal El Niño will occur than not occur.
In addition, EFEN indicated that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 1+2 region could reach values above 27°C and 26°C in March and April, respectively.
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In recent days, the rains in the north of the country continue to cause flooding. 298 districts of the north coast and mountains are at risk. Senamhi forecast more rainfall during the week.
“Associated with this warming, and according to the current seasonal forecast of rains from March-May 2023, it is expected that, in the north and central coast, in addition to the northern and central-western mountains of the country, there will be episodes of moderate rains. at strong intensity, especially in March,” the entity said.
Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon – ENFEN changes the status of the alert system “Not active” to “Coastal El Niño surveillance”.
On the other hand, for the central Pacific region, most international models estimate a higher probability that neutral conditions will remain until May and that a transition to warm conditions will then occur. It should be noted that forecasts for beyond autumn show high uncertainty due to the predictability barrier.
In addition, the EFEN Multisectoral Commission recommends that decision makers take into account possible risk scenarios in accordance with the current seasonal forecast for disaster risk prevention and reduction purposes.
The entity will continue to monitor and report on the evolution of oceanic-atmospheric conditions and update the outlook. In view of the present conditions, ENFEN will issue its next official statement on March 16, 2023.
Meanwhile, the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi) reported that the northern coast of Peru will present moderate to heavy rains, accompanied by electrical discharges. This weather event will take place during the second week of March.
North coast: New episode of heavy rains for the next week.
The Senamhi Meteorological Prediction Sub-directorate pointed out that this phenomenon is mainly due to a favorable atmospheric configuration, an increase in the surface temperature of the sea off the north coast and a higher concentration of humidity during this period.
The highest accumulated rainfall will reach values above 70 mm/day in Piura, especially in the provinces of Sullana, Morropón and Piura. Meanwhile, in Tumbes, accumulations of over 50 mm/day are expected.
According to the Senamhi specialist, Diego Rodríguez, the panorama of rains in the coming weeks begins with the coast, where they will be more intense on March 8 and 9, which would reach values of 70 millimeters in Piura, plus still in the provinces of Piura Sullana and Morropón; while in Tumbes they would reach above 50 milliliters in the highest areas.
On the side of the mountains, the specialist pointed out that there is a notice that occupies the entire mountain range that extends from March 3 to 5, where there will be moderate to heavy rainfall in the middle and upper basin, especially, waiting for accumulated in the southern sierra of 25 millimeters, 23 millimeters in the central sierra and 30 in the northern sierra.
In the jungle during the period from March 3 to 5, there will be moderate to heavy rainfall that will focus on the surroundings of the jungle and from March 5, it will be concentrated in the northern jungle and part of the central high jungle, which could reach over 60 millimeters in the northern jungle and over 40 in the central high jungle.