Western countries divided over the question of negotiations with Russia

Should Ukraine be encouraged to negotiate with Russia or not? The question divides Western countries. A year after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the latter are indeed struggling to agree on the purpose of the military aid they are offering to kyiv. While some want to give Ukraine the means to achieve victory on its own terms, others are more reserved, and question the limits of Western support.

This debate, constant since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his armies on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, manifested itself again on Sunday February 26, through the voice of the Lithuanian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Gabrielius Landsbergis, who tweeted a strong criticism of the promoters of a negotiated peace with Russia. “Forcing Ukraine to betray part of its citizens would not be fair, and would not bring peace,” he said. Such “agreements” would only lay the groundwork for the next conflict. This is why we call on Ukraine’s allies to fully commit to a total Ukrainian victory. This is the only real option. »

What means for what objectives

The Ukrainian authorities are not prepared to compromise on their war objectives, and for the moment consider the negotiations as a means of seeking, at their expense, an illusory appeasement with Russia. Since November 2022, Kiev has been defending a ten-point peace plan, including the full restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity (including Donbass and Crimea, occupied since 2014), the establishment of security guarantees for Ukraine, and the establishment of a tribunal to try Russian war crimes in Ukraine. A plan that Russia categorically refuses.

The European Union officially supports this plan, defended in particular by Poland and the Baltic States. Others, however, would doubt kyiv’s ability to obtain satisfaction on all of its demands. The Politico news site notes that Gabrielius Landsbergis’ statement comes two days after the Wall Street Journal published an article that Germany, France and Britain are seeking to encourage Ukraine to negotiate, in exchange for closer ties with NATO and security guarantees, without going as far as the integration of Kiev into the Atlantic Alliance.

If the representatives of these three countries continue to affirm that the decision to open negotiations and the terms of these negotiations must depend on Ukraine, the American newspaper notes that this rhetoric badly conceals their doubts as to the capacity of the West to support a long-term war effort, and that of Ukraine to reconquer all of its territory still occupied by Russia, in particular the Donbass and Crimea.

“The time is not for dialogue”

Behind the question of the negotiations, it is indeed the strategic question of the objectives of the war which are posed to the Westerners, and of the means which they are ready to invest in their pursuit. The varied attitudes on the subject of the delivery of heavy tanks to the Ukraine thus revealed a certain number of tensions, the most ardent supporters of Kiev being exasperated by the German reluctance to authorize the sending of Leopard tanks. “Ukraine and Europe will win this war, with or without Germany,” thundered Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki at the end of January, before Berlin finally gave the green light.

Between the holding of the Munich conference on security and the approach of the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, the many positions expressed by Western leaders in February also revealed a range of nuances on the subject. Traveling to Ukraine on February 21, US President Joe Biden thus reaffirmed the firmness of his support to help counter the Russian invasion. Conversely, future Czech President Petr Pavel, who is due to take office in March, cast a chill by calling for caution over some of Ukraine’s war aims, including the liberation of Crimea.

A few days earlier, Emmanuel Macron, criticized on several occasions since the start of the invasion for his desire to maintain dialogue with Russia, reassured kyiv by claiming to want to “bring Ukraine to victory”. Nevertheless, if he considers that the time is still for confrontation on the battlefield, the President of the Republic does not rule out the principle of negotiations. Emmanuel Macron hopes that a Ukrainian counter-offensive will allow kyiv to open negotiations on its terms. On February 18, the Head of State said he was “convinced” that the war “will not end militarily”. Invited to react by Corriere Della Sera, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his distrust of attempts at exchanges with Russia: “It will be a useless dialogue. »

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