Ukraine has become the main front in a global conflict between authoritarianism and democracy, which its citizens defend at the cost of their lives.
Even if their chances were not given much a year ago, Ukrainians are holding out on the front lines of this battle for democracy, thanks to their exceptional courage and the hope of a democratic future turned towards West.
However, victory will also depend on the will of the established democracies to provide the Ukrainians with the arms and support necessary to win the military battle and ensure their economic and political survival.
Any other anniversaries in sight?
On the pitch, the Ukrainians have achieved a lot with little, but they are not at the end of their troubles. Vladimir Putin seems determined to sacrifice tens of thousands of other soldiers to win a war of attrition from which he would only reap the ruins.
Putin is also waging a war of wits to convince the world that Ukrainians are – depending on his mood at the time – fascists, puppets of global capitalism or woke leftists who threaten the sacrosanct values of Mother Russia.
For Ukraine, victory can now only be total. For that, it will take time. Above all, international aid will have to be reinforced—.
A tough test for the alliance
It is obvious that NATO emerges from this year stronger in the face of the Russian threat, thanks in part to the Biden administration’s shift in favor of a full commitment by the United States.
By comparison, Russia has only been able to clearly rally to its cause a few pariahs of the international community, including North Korea, Iran and Syria.
However, the economic sanctions have not had the desired effect because several countries continue to do business normally with Russia, notably China, India and Saudi Arabia.
It is Western Europe that bears a good part of the costs of the sanctions, but the political will to support Ukraine remains strong there.
This desire will nevertheless depend on the leadership of the United States and the commitment of all its allies, including us.
Necessary (North) American leadership
A year ago, it was far from guaranteed that American public opinion would support Ukraine. Today, despite a high bill and the risk of escalation, a clear majority approves aid to Ukraine.
Russia, however, retains support within the Trumpist right, which is rather receptive to Putin’s message when he claims to defend traditional Christian values against the “globalists” (read “the Jews”) and the “woke” left.
For now, the Republican establishment is resisting these pressures.
As 2024 approaches, however, it will become increasingly difficult for elected Republicans to shoulder Biden even as the costs, risks, and need for U.S. engagement grow.
Canada too must participate. Pro-Putin sentiment exists among us, but it remains confined to a few conservatives fed on the same sources of misinformation as their American counterparts and to others who are so blinded by anti-Americanism that they swallow the Putin’s “anti-fascist” speech.
To help Ukrainians in this global conflict, all democracies must pitch in. For Canada, that must mean providing more than four tanks.