The BCRA is unable to buy reserves in 2023.
The BCRA ended the day with sales for USD 35 million to meet the demand in the wholesale market, in a session with business for USD 232.8 million in the spot segment.
The BCRA sold USD 48 million and accumulates a negative balance of almost USD 500 million in the month
The entity maintains net sales in the MULC for some USD 481 million in February, and USD 764 million since last January 25
In the last 15 rounds of operations, since last January 25 -inclusive-, the selling balance of the BCRA accumulated USD 799 million in the MULC.
After having concluded the month of January with net sales of USD 192 million, according to consolidated data, the monetary entity maintained a negative result in February that tripled this figure, some USD 516 million due to its foreign exchange intervention in ten operational rounds.
A report by Portfolio Personal Inversiones stressed that “the drain of reserves in the foreign exchange market has not stopped since mid-January, but has been accelerating in the last few wheels. We assume that behind this are combined the effects of a lower supply of agriculture, to a lesser extent, and of a certain relaxation of the restrictions on private demand, to a greater extent”.
Financial week: dollar bonds fell 5% despite Treasury debt buyback announcements
Argentine bonds suffered from falls on Wall Street and risk aversion in the markets. The free dollar fell to $377 and the exchange rate gap was below 100%. The BCRA sold USD 286 million on the market and reserves fell
The economist and business advisor Salvador Di Stefano recalled that “there were two soybean dollars, one at $200 and the other at $230. If we had a soybean dollar in March, it should be at least $260 to be attractive. If it comes out in April it should be $280 and if it comes out in May it should be $300. With this expected progression, no one will sell soybeans while waiting for the new window of opportunities that the government offers the producer.
The BCRA is not managing to buy dollars in the market without the incentive of the soybean dollar to increase agricultural sales
“No one sells soybeans in this scenario, not even in the short term, much less in the future, since everyone is waiting for the soybean dollar, which will make prices rise in pesos. The market (Matba Rofex) seems to discount that it could arrive in May, the May position of soybeans fell to USD 384 and July is at USD 411 per ton, it is a very important price jump”, warned Di Stefano.
Financial day: Argentine shares listed on Wall Street climbed up to 9%
The free dollar rose two pesos and closed at 379 pesos. The BCRA sold USD 48 million in the market. The Buenos Aires stock market gained 3.1%, to 257,625 points and the country risk remained at 1,966 points
Gross international reserves decreased on Monday by USD 2 million and ended at 40,006 million dollars.
The economist Gustavo Ber expressed that “in the face of a growing consensus that the drain on foreign exchange cannot be extended for much longer, the expectation of additional actions on demand -possibly with more stocks- and on supply -perhaps with a ‘soybean dollar 3’ and international loans-, since the negative dynamics would gradually deplete the net reserves”.
The Research for Traders experts indicated that “some movement is expected in the BCRA reference interest rates, taking for granted a new edition of the soybean dollar to accelerate the inflow of fresh dollars expected by the end of March or the second quarter of anus”.
“The visit of the IMF officials who were in Argentina carrying out a technical review of the national government’s accounts has ended, but the discussions will continue in a virtual format,” they pointed out.
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