The BCRA ended the last round of the week with sales for USD 67 million to meet the needs of the market, in a wholesale session with business for USD 207.9 million in the spot segment.
The BCRA sold another USD 59 million in the market and has had a negative balance for twelve days in a row
The monetary entity registered net sales of USD 366 million in the MULC in February. So far this year, the negative balance for their interventions reaches USD 558 million
Gustavo Quintana, agent of PR Corredores de Cambio, warned that the “pronounced drop in the income levels of the agro-export sector forces official sales to correct the lack of foreign currency in the market.”
In the last thirteen rounds of operations, since last January 25 -inclusive-, the selling balance of the BCRA accumulated USD 716 million in the MULC.
The Central Bank sold more than USD 500 million in the last ten rounds of the exchange market
The entity ended its intervention of the day with sales in the MULC for USD 49 million, a figure that represents 20% of the volume operated
After having concluded the month of January with net sales of USD 192 million, according to consolidated data, the monetary entity maintained a higher negative result in February, of USD 433 million due to its foreign exchange intervention in only seven operational rounds.
Gross international reserves decreased on Thursday by USD 92 million and ended at USD 40,076 million, the lowest amount since December 21 of last year.
Financial day: the free dollar fell six pesos to $373 and the gap with the official was below 100%
The free dollar returned to its lowest price since January 16. The monetary entity basted the ninth round followed by sales. The S&P Merval gained 1.8% and Global bonds lost 3.2%, with a country risk above 1,900 points
“The local grain futures market already assumes that next July the Government would launch a new edition of the Soy Dollar or another mechanism to accelerate the entry of fresh dollars. This is evident in the values offered for the July contract, which are around USD 403 per ton, while for May of this year the price offered is USD 376 per ton”, evaluated the Research for Traders experts.
Market sales, bond buybacks and debt payments erode reserves in 2023
Financial agents agree that the constant loss of BCRA reserves also makes the scenario complex, since the chances of complying with the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are receding under the current circumstances.
The Government has the largest active program with the IMF with a plan of extended facilities for some 44,000 million dollars, with a plan that includes quarterly reviews.
Analysts from Portfolio Personal Inversiones pointed out that “contrary to its seasonality, we detected that the demand from importers in the MULC rose from USD 24 million to USD 74 million in a little less than a month. Along these lines, the contraction exhibited in the manufacturing industry and construction in December suggest that economic activity would have posted its fourth consecutive monthly decline. It goes without saying that Massa is perfectly aware of the political cost of a drop in economic activity ahead of an election, which is the basis for softening – at least temporarily. of the stocks”.
The economist Gustavo Ber warned “the continuous draining of reserves, with a long path of scarcity during the year due to weather restrictions, for which new incentives for supply such as a ‘3 soybean dollar’ could once again be dusted off.”
“Beyond the fact that interventions (bond repurchases), another daily currency input, have so far managed to keep financial dollars relatively stable, it is to be expected that an election year, a fall in the demand for money and the noise that The political tugs generated by the debt in pesos will soon lead to a convergence towards the free dollar and then the card -which is already located a few steps from $400- since there is no space to accumulate more arrears”, pointed out Gustavo Ber.
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