Chinese balloons and espionage | The Journal of Montreal

In recent weeks, China seems to be plagued by several erratic policies. The sudden lifting of measures to combat COVID-19, the economy with the lowest growth rates in 40 years, the high-altitude surveillance balloon that violates American airspace, just before an important meeting of two days in Beijing between the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and several senior Chinese leaders…

The Chinese government is piling up one bad decision after another. This lame rudder is unusual. Its responsibility ultimately lies with Xi Jinping, whose incompetence has become increasingly apparent since he consolidated his power last November.

1. What type of Chinese balloon is flying over the United States?

The Chinese government claims the balloon veered off course due to strong winds. He also claims that it is only a balloon intended to collect scientific data. But if so, why didn’t Beijing warn Canada and the United States that their airspace was going to be violated by a Chinese aircraft? According to the New York Times, citing Chinese military newspapers, high-altitude balloons have become popular spy tools because they can gather information not only about what’s happening on the ground, but also from satellites. in the space above them. The hypothesis of a military balloon seems plausible, especially since the Chinese have accepted without flinching that Blinken postpones the visit he was to make to Beijing tomorrow and Monday.

2. What does this incident reveal?

If the hypothesis of a military spy balloon is confirmed, it must be concluded that the army does not care at all about the repercussions of its actions in other areas. China has just once again drawn attention to its espionage operations, which is always unwelcome. In addition, this affair caused the postponement of the Blinken meetings.

3. Could the United States be using this incident for propaganda?

If it’s a military intelligence craft, as Washington says, why doesn’t the US military shoot it down before it gathers important information? It seems that the United States is not shy about exploiting the bad publicity that this balloon gives to China. On the other hand, shooting down this balloon would result in reciprocal gestures from China in the event of violation of Chinese airspace by American craft.

4. Why does this incident challenge Xi Jinping’s power?

To make an image, it seems that the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing. Xi has centralized more and more powers, in particular thanks to the proliferation of small interministerial groups on important issues, groups that he chairs himself. One of the most important functions of senior management is to prevent and arbitrate conflicts of interest between departments. It seems that Xi failed to prevent the conflict between Defense and Foreign Affairs. Has Xi accumulated responsibilities beyond his work capacity? It’s possible. It could also be that the military discredits Xi and did not see fit to keep him informed of certain activities.

5. And Canada?

Canada can’t do much, although the ball probably flew over their territory. It remains towed by NORAD, that is to say the United States.