Ukraine: the next step should worry us

The war in Ukraine has just taken a step forward, with the desire now displayed to deliver Western tanks, NATO tanks, in other words, to Volodymyr Zelensky, who is asking for them to regain the advantage against Russia.

Western doctrine has so far been fairly clear, at least theoretically: countries that wanted to could provide Ukraine with defensive weapons – even if, in practice, they could become offensive. They were even encouraged to do so, as if, over the course of the war, NATO had symbolically annexed Ukraine, which was not yet a member.

The same was not true for offensive weapons like tanks. Germany has just made it possible.

I’ll take it

A certain concern should animate us. At some point, which cannot be identified with certainty in advance, but which could well arise, Russia will judge that NATO forces are now objectively in conflict with it.

They will be, to use a term that has imposed itself, in a situation of co-belligerence which could bring the American empire and the Russian empire face to face. Ukraine, then, will only be the battlefield where these two powers will confront each other.

Certainly, the United States would be in a noble role: it comes to the rescue of Ukrainian independence against the Russian aggressor. The fact remains that once this milestone is reached, Europe will potentially become a battlefield between two imperial powers.

Let’s understand each other well. That we have to show solidarity with Ukraine goes without saying.

That it is necessary to throw oneself head first into a conflict which, whatever one says about it, could pass the nuclear cap should however not go without saying.

Strangely, in Western chancelleries, this possibility is not taken seriously. Great strategists say they are certain that Vladimir Putin will not cross this threshold. This optimism is not based on a serious analysis of the situation.

Another factor is added: an authoritarian regime that collapses rarely does so gently.

And if Vladimir Putin fell tomorrow, his replacement would not necessarily be a Western-compatible Democrat.

Strangely, recalling this, in North America as in Europe, can earn you the reputation of being pro-Russian. There is something astonishing, and perhaps even irresponsible, in this refusal of the slightest geopolitical nuance about this conflict.

Poutine

The warmongers of the West, in the name of virtue, announce that they will never give in to Putin. Canada, in this regard, does not leave its place, as if its vital security was affected by this conflict.

Let’s be certain: if Russia were to lose Crimea, it would fall into a crisis of the regime, the consequences of which would be catastrophic.

Unconditional peace, by total capitulation of the enemy, inherited from the 20th century, is not suitable for this conflict. And it is not certain that it is by transforming the Ukrainian army de facto into a NATO army that we can hope for the return of peace to the borders of Europe.