A survey measured which national leaders people would never vote for: the results

Alberto Fernández, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Cristina Kirchner, and Mauricio Macri

2023 began, the year in which Argentines will once again elect president, governors, mayors, and representatives to the National Congress, provincial legislatures, and deliberative councils. The Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio continue without resolving their internships; while the liberals who broke into 2021 with Javier Milei at the helm will try to give a new bump and the left will seek to ratify its historic performance in the midterm elections. The candidacies are still to be confirmed, but the main names have already begun to show their cards and personal ambitions. The work of persuasion of a society hit by the economic crisis will not be easy; At least that is how opinion polls show it: a survey measured which national leaders the people would never vote for and the high percentage of negative image of the referents of Argentine politics impacts.

A report carried out at the country level during the month of December by Zuban Córdoba y Asociados revealed a series of data on how public opinion would act in this electoral year. In general terms, the survey confirmed that “the Government maintains its levels of negativity and disapproval without major changes.” Alberto Fernández “continues to be one of the biggest victims of that negativity. However, some indicators continue to give small but sustained good news for the ruling party, such as the image of Minister Sergio Massa, who in this latest study continues to show an interesting recovery,” the document describes.

In the opposition, the reality is not very different: “There is still a lack of figures with great capacities for mobilization.” The survey showed that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, María Eugenia Vidal and Patricia Bullrich appear as the most valued”, while figures such as Gerardo Morales, Martín Lousteau or Facundo Manes, are “perhaps further behind but with the potential of those who still maintain levels of very high ignorance, which acts both as an opportunity and as a threat”.

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A significant piece of information is the high percentage of rejection towards the main names of the coalitions: none of the surveyed figures exceeds 40% of a positive image.

“Those who feel closest to the FdT tend to mention positive sentiments, while the opposition voter tends to search for negative sentiments. Disappointment, hope and anger are the most prevalent feelings in the study, none with more than 31%,” the report notes. With the exception of universities, all institutions are also part of the general rejection: even Justice was one of the most punished in the ranking.

The poll measured the voting potential of the main national leaders. The parity scenario between Larreta and Massa stands out. 10.7% undoubtedly vote for the head of the City Government; 27.3% would probably vote for him and 55% would never vote for him. For its part, the Minister of Economy is surely voted for by 8.1% of those surveyed; 27.5% responded that they would probably choose it; and 57.2% would never vote for him.

Cristina Kirchner continues to be the leader who has the most consolidated vote despite the fact that for the moment she maintains her decision not to compete for any elective office: 18.6% choose her with certainty and 15.7% probably also; but at the same time, she has a high level of rejection that is reflected in the 62.1% who answered that they would never vote for her.

Meanwhile, almost 60% of Patricia Bullrich are convinced that they could never vote for her. 23.8% “probably” and 9.5% sure vote.

However, the worst scenario is experienced by the President. While Alberto Fernández continues with activities and gestures that show that he is already in the campaign, the Zuban Córdoba y Asociados survey revealed worrying data for his electoral intentions. 80.7% of those consulted responded that they would never vote for him; he barely reaches 5% sure vote and around 10% “probably vote for him”.

Despite the rejection of Fernández, Mauricio Macri fails to capitalize on those potential votes. In fact, 68.4% would never give him the chance to become president again. 20.8% probably yes, but surely only 5.4% of those surveyed choose it.

As for Javier Milei, after breaking into the midterm elections, this 2023 surprises him, reaching a 9.4% sure vote and 21.6% probable vote. But almost 60% responded that they would not vote for the deputy of La Libertad Avanza.

For Vidal, who made her intentions to become president explicit, the numbers do not work for the moment. With a 6% sure vote and 22.8% likely vote, she weighs heavily with the 61.6% who would never vote for her.

Axel Kicillof, one of the names being evaluated in the Frente de Todos to compete to reach the Casa Rosada, has numbers similar to those of his predecessor: 6.7% of the consolidated vote; 21.2% likely vote; and 61.8% who reject it and under no point of view would vote for it.

The poll also measured the radicals Gerardo Morales, Facundo Manes and Martín Lousteau. All three with similar results. The governor of Jujuy reached a sure vote of 5.1%; 16.4% probable vote and has a rejection of 60%. For their part, 3.2% of those surveyed would surely vote for the national deputy; probably 17.1% and 59.9% answered that they would not choose it. Meanwhile, the senator is elected convinced by 3%; probably 15%; however, 64.9% said they would never vote for him.

From Peronism Daniel Scioli was measured. The Brazilian ambassador who is waiting for a rematch after being defeated by Macri in 2015, consolidated a 4.9% sure vote; and 18.3% likely vote. But 67% reject it.

Eduardo “Wado” De Pedro, another of the names that are evaluated in the ruling party, is still far from having competitive numbers. Only 1.8% of those polled answered that they vote for him with confidence. 14.3% “probably” and 62.4% answered that they would not vote for him.

Finally, there are the governors Juan Schiaretti and Sergio Uñac. Only 3.5% of Córdoba would vote for him, while 62.5% would not. The one from San Juan handles similar numbers: 1.6% sure vote and 66.2% who would never vote for him.

Regarding the level of image of national leaders, Larreta is the best positioned with 38.4% positive image compared to 49% negative image. Cristina Kirchner, Massa and Vidal share the percentage of positive image (between 34.8% and 34.9%), but the vice president is the one with the greatest negative of this group (62.7%), followed by the Minister of Economy (54.7%) and the national representative of JxC (53.1%).

The survey carried out between December 17 and 21 on 1,300 cases also describes a high percentage of negative image for Patricia Bullrich (56.9%), with 33.3% positive. The head of the PRO maintains numbers similar to those of the President: the positive image of Alberto Fernández is at 32.1%, but the negative image of him reached 66%, even surpassing that of CFK.

The libertarian legislator, Javier Milei, is 30% positive and, like the rest of those surveyed, his negative image is above 50% (53.1%, to be exact). Numbers similar to those handled by the governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof: a positive image of 29.9% compared to a negative 53.2%.

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Below the economist is a former Buenos Aires governor: Daniel Scioli. The current ambassador in Brazil maintains a 27.6% positive image, while the negative one is 56.7%. Mauricio Macri has the same positive percentage these days, who at the same time became the national leader with the greatest negative image: 67.9%.

Meanwhile, the radicals who aspire to stomp on these elections maintain similar numbers among themselves. Martín Lousteau has a favorable image of 27.4%, while the negative is 42.4%. According to this survey, the governor of Jujuy Gerardo Morales barely reaches 25.4% positive, compared to 38% negative. For his part, Deputy Facundo Manes reached 24.9% positive and 39.4% negative since his arrival in national politics.

In the ruling party, the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo “Wado” De Pedro, faces 27.1% of those surveyed who answered that they did not know him. This percentage exceeds the positive image of him, which is 20.1%. While his refusal is 35.9%. A similar scenario occurs with the Cordovan governor, Juan Schiaretti, whose level of ignorance is 25%, surpassing his positive image by 10 points. Meanwhile, the negative image of him is 37.1%. This opinion poll also measured the governor of San Juan, Sergio Uñac, who barely has a positive image at the national level of 7.8%, while almost 40% responded that they did not know him and 30.4% rated him negatively.

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