Ukrainian intelligence believes that next spring and early summer will be decisive in the war and confirmed that there are indications that Russian troops are regrouping to prepare a “big offensive” in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate also estimates that Russian forces are unlikely to launch an attack from Belarus or southern Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War says that Russian forces may be preparing to carry out a decisive offensive or defensive operation in the Lugansk region and has observed a redeployment of conventional forces, such as airborne elements, on the Svátove-Axis. Kreminna after the Russian withdrawal from the Kherson region.
Failed Russian offensive in Zaporizhia
Russian forces have continued their limited ground attacks to retake lost positions northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
They have also continued their ground offensive around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on the city of Bakhmut itself.
The Institute for the Study of War says that Russian forces probably carried out an unsuccessful offensive operation in the Zaporizhia region in the last 72 hours, where they would not have been able to gain grounddespite the claims of some Russian occupation officials.
Eleven months since the start of the invasion: Ukraine has recovered 54% of the territory
This January 24 marks 11 months since the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. .
According to the British Ministry of Defence, so far Ukraine has regained about 54% of the space occupied by Russia since its invasion on February 24, 2022. Russia now controls about 18% of Ukraine’s territory internationally recognized, including the regions of Donbas and Crimea under Russian control since 2014.
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