Risk of nuclear war, climate… The doomsday clock closer than ever to the end of the world

11:58 p.m. and 30 seconds. This is the time indicated by the doomsday clock, Tuesday, January 24. As its name suggests, it does more than indicate solar time. This conceptual clock, created in 1947, is supposed to inform about the proximity of the end of the world, which must occur at the symbolic twelve strokes of midnight.

The American NGO Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is responsible for determining how many seconds separate the planet from this fateful gong. The clock thus wants to alert decision-makers and the population, since it uses the analogy of the countdown to midnight to denounce the dangers weighing on humanity.

For the past two years, it’s been stuck at 100 seconds to midnight. Closer to midnight than it has ever been since its creation in 1945. The climate crisis, the war in Ukraine and the risks posed by nuclear proliferation have been taken into account for the year 2023, for which the hand advances another 10 seconds and ends up 90 seconds before midnight. Its members point to the “inability of world leaders to deal with the imminent threats of nuclear war and climate change”.

Risks induced by new technologies

For their calculation, the experts also rely on the problems linked to the lack of hydrocarbons and the risks induced by new technologies. They use recent events to move the clock forward or backward. However, they do not react to immediate news, since they meet only twice a year.

The Cuban crisis of 1962, for example, had been resolved before the group could meet to change the time indicated. The test by the USSR of its first nuclear weapon in 1949, on the other hand, had brought the end of the world closer to four minutes, the clock then indicating 11:57 p.m.

Conversely, the group of experts estimated in 1963 that the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, signed by the USSR and the United States, keeps us away from the apocalypse. The clock loses five minutes and reads 11:48 p.m. h 53.

1991, best year since 1945

In 1991, the clock experienced its most notable and optimistic evolution: it lost 7 minutes to settle at 11:43 p.m. Since its creation in 1945, its hands had never been so far from midnight. This date marks the dissolution of the USSR and the end of the Cold War. The two countries had also signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

The Doomsday Clock was founded by Albert Einstein and scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project, which produced the first atomic bomb. Originally, after World War II, the clock read 7 minus midnight.

The idea for a clock came from artist Martyl Langsdorf. This choice expresses the idea according to the count will continue to advance if it is not stopped by human action. The clock first appeared on the cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947.

The relevance of this clock has been questioned by several experts. Its pessimism and the extent of the transformations to be made, both in nuclear and environmental matters, can generate apathy on the part of the populations, estimates for example Anders Sandberg, researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute of the University of Oxford.

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