The intolerable slowness of Ukraine’s allies

What if Vladimir Putin managed to conquer a large part of Ukraine in the spring?

When the Ukrainian army has the military equipment it requires, this possibility can be ruled out. At the moment, it is not.

Germany’s reluctance to allow German-made tanks to fight in Ukraine is not acceptable given the seriousness of the stakes.

Of course, it is better if tanks from other allied countries also end up on the battlefield. But for the rest, the war in Ukraine is coming to a decisive stage and the Ukrainian army needs all possible conventional weapons.

Of course, Ukrainian soldiers are not necessarily trained in the use of these weapons. But precisely, the endless dithering of the allies is wasting precious time for the Ukrainian army.

One can understand that no one gave much of the skin of the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the war, but this is no longer the case.

Likewise, Putin’s ambitions became increasingly clear after the start of the conflict. He wants to at least reconstitute the former empire of the Soviet Union. Even if Russia does not seem able for the moment to rebuild its empire, this dangerous project must be stopped now.

Three exits

Between now and the end of the year, three outcomes are possible: 1) that Russia reconquers a significant additional part of Ukrainian territory; 2) that the conflict is bogged down within its current borders; 3) that Ukraine regains a significant part of its territory.

The advent of the first two possibilities would have negative effects on the European coalition, on the world economy and on the level of confidence in the democracies. Moreover, such situations could encourage China to support Russia more to tip the scales in its favor.

Conversely, further significant gains by the Ukrainian military on the ground would boost the global economy. They would promote concerted action between the United States and its allies. Finally, they would make Xi Jinping think about plans for conquest, like other dictators of his ilk.

Russian leaders are playing their careers in this war. The Russians would not forgive them a defeat. Even a long stalemate would be dangerous for them.

This is why Russian propaganda tries to make believe that the existence of Russia is at stake in this war of aggression which it has engaged.

Democratization

At the moment, no one wants to dismantle Russia. However, the transformation of its political regime into a democracy is becoming increasingly desirable. Truth be told, the rest of the West will not be able to sleep in peace until Russia becomes a full-fledged democracy.

In short, the more one examines the major stakes of the war in Ukraine, the more the slowness in supplying it with armaments seems intolerable and dangerous.

---

Source

---