These countries whose population is declining

Like China, whose population has declined for the first time in more than 60 years, other countries, especially in Europe and Asia, will see their populations decline over the next few decades.

• Read also: China’s population drops for the first time in more than 60 years

This dispatch is based on the population forecast published last July by the UN, which provides projections up to 2100.

Eight countries with more than 10 million inhabitants have seen their populations decline over the past decade.

Most are European.

In addition to Ukraine, whose population has fallen sharply due to the war with Russia, the other countries in Europe whose population is decreasing – Italy, Portugal, Poland, Romania and Greece – have in common particularly low fertility rates. , between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman according to the World Bank.

This phenomenon is added, for Poland, Romania and Greece, to a negative migratory ratio: departures abroad are more numerous than arrivals from abroad.

Outside Europe, Japan is also seeing its aging population decline, due to low fertility (1.3 children per woman) and low immigration. Japan lost more than 3 million people between 2011 and 2021.

Finally, in Syria, the population has been strongly affected by the war.

With the exception of Syria, all of these countries will see their populations continue to decline, according to UN projections.

They should be joined by China, whose 2022 decline, the first in 60 years, will turn into a lasting trend. Today, the most populous country in the world, China should be dethroned this year by India. It should lose almost half of its population by 2100, going from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million inhabitants.

Other countries will join the movement, such as Russia, which had experienced an initial population decline between 1994 and 2008 in the wake of the fall of the USSR, Germany, South Korea or Spain, countries whose population will begin to decline by 2030, or even Thailand, France, North Korea or Sri Lanka by 2050.

Europe’s population as a whole would begin to decline as early as this decade.

Many other countries will see their population decline during the second half of the 21st century.

The populations of Vietnam or Iran, for example, should decrease from the 2050s, those of India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey or the United Kingdom from the 2060s.

Eventually, it is the world population that should begin to decline, from the 2090s, after having exceeded 10 billion people, according to UN projections.

While the European, American and Asian populations should all have begun to decline by 2100, the African population will continue to increase.

The African continent would increase from 1.4 to 3.9 billion inhabitants by 2100. Some 38% of the world’s population would then live in Africa, compared to around 18% today.

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