The Russian military commanders probably have not created the necessary conditions to announce an eventual defeat of their troops in Limán, says the Institute for the Study of War, referring to information that points to a possible Ukrainian siege on this city of Donetsk after the significant advances of the last two days.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has not discussed the Russian losses around Liman nor has it prepared for the collapse of this area of the front line, something that would probably affect the Russians’ morale.
Ukrainian troops have advanced from different points and are trying to complete the encirclement of Russian troops. .
The collapse of Limán could have important consequences for Russian troops in northern Donetsk and western Lugansk regions and allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions on the western border of the Lugansk region and in the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area.
Newly mobilized and poorly trained Russian recruits
The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russian authorities continue to send newly mobilized and poorly trained recruits to reinforce badly damaged units, including what were once considered Russia’s main conventional fighting forces, in various cities.
The UK Ministry of Defense says that in the seven days since President Putin announced the partial military mobilization there has been a sizeable exodus of Russians trying to evade the call. Although the exact number is unclear, it is likely to exceed the size of the total invasion force Russia deployed in Ukraine in February 2022.
The Institute for the Study of War adds that Russian authorities are beginning to restrict the movement of citizens in border regions in response to the hundreds of thousands of men trying to flee the country.