The price of the euro fell this Tuesday to one dollar per unit, a level that had never been reached since the introduction two decades ago of the single European currency, sunk by the risk to the economy of the continent of a cut in the supply of Russian gas.
Investors favor the greenback, considered a safe haven, and the currency has gained about 14% since the beginning of the year and was briefly exchanged at a dollar for the euro around 09:50 GMT, its highest price against the European currency since December. from 2002.
Market operators fear a major energy crisis in the Old Continent due to the interruption of the flow of Russian gas that arrives through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, currently under maintenance. This tension fuels fears of a recession in Europe.
The energy that comes from Russia is at the “heart of the storm in Europe” and the announcement made on Saturday by Canada that in order to mitigate the energy crisis with Russia, it will send the necessary turbines to Germany, “did not have a positive impact “, said the analyst Jeffrey Halley, of the firm Oanda.
“The key issue is whether the gas will come back after July 21. The markets seem to have already made up their minds,” Halley said.
For Mark Haefele, an expert at UBS, a suspension of Russian gas deliveries in Europe “would cause a recession throughout the euro zone with three consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy.”
The European Central Bank (ECB) could then find itself in difficulties if it wants to end its expansionary monetary policy and move on to a contractionary phase to fight inflation. galloping that aggravates the situation.
For its part, the issuer of the dollar, the Federal Reserve, has more room to maneuver to continue raising rates, as jobs figures released on Friday proved that the US economy is more resilient for now.
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