Everyone sensed that the war waged in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s Russia was going to challenge geopolitical balances and precipitate historical choices. The desire expressed by Finland on 12 May to renounce neutrality in order to apply for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a manifestation of this, accentuated by the possibility that Sweden join. These nominations could become effective within a year.
Who could not understand that a sovereign country sharing a long border of more than 1,300 kilometers with Russia is eager today to guarantee its security other than by relying on its own forces? The Ukrainian tragedy, adding to the Georgian precedent, could only fuel legitimate concerns in Helsinki, precipitating this major development for northern Europe.
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That the two Scandinavian countries have decided to take the plunge in 2022 after having refused to do so throughout the Cold War says a lot about the view that their public opinion, long reluctant to join the Atlantic Alliance, has on the system of power. Russian and its concentration in the hands of one man, unlike in Soviet times.
Legitimate approach
The legitimacy of the Finnish and Swedish approach cannot therefore be called into question. With the exception of Turkey, which has formulated grievances which refer moreover to its internal concerns and not to the new geostrategic deal that is looming, many favorable voices were also immediately raised within NATO for approve this possible enlargement.
The latter nevertheless raises questions, military and political, which the urgency and seriousness of the situation in Ukraine unfortunately risk putting in the background. By accepting Finland as a member, the Alliance will thus have to integrate Finland’s long land border with Russia into its defense plans. It will have to review its system in the Baltic Sea, especially if Sweden also joins it. The strategic dimension of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania, will be revived.
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Although NATO claims to be only a defensive alliance – as evidenced by the central article of its charter which establishes that an attack against one of its members is considered an attack directed against all -, its reinforcement can only be seen as a threat by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, especially given the significant military capabilities of the new candidates. Moscow immediately announced “military-technical” retaliatory measures, including the suspension of electricity deliveries to Finland from May 14.
However, the Russian president can only blame himself. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Western officials, from French President Emmanuel Macron to his US counterpart Joe Biden, had worked to achieve a “stable and predictable” relationship with him, in the words of the second. , seeking an agreement on the European security architecture.
By launching his troops to attack Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has triggered a realignment that runs counter to his objectives. He is today the best agent of the Western alliance that he wanted to weaken and himself tightens the jaws of the vice in which he has placed himself, dispelling the hope that the weapons, finally, can be silenced. .
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