Where is the Covid epidemic at one week from the lifting of restrictions?

D-7 before a return to the world before. Or almost. On March 14, a “decovided” wind of freedom will blow over France. “We are going to suspend the application of the vaccination pass wherever it applies”, announced the head of government, Jean Castex, a few days ago. And “wearing a mask will no longer be required in the workplace, nor in classrooms” from this date, said Matignon.

An easing of restrictions made possible by the ebb of the Covid-19 epidemic, with figures of contaminations and hospitalizations in continuous decline. But while the coronavirus seems to be on the decline and no longer at the heart of our conversations, it hasn’t gone away yet. And could well regain a place in our daily lives.

Indicators in continuous decline

After a runaway epidemic at the end of 2021 under the effect of the Omicron variant, and peaks at more than 500,000 daily contaminations recorded in January, the winter wave of Covid-19 has continued to decline for several weeks, with digits divided by ten. “All of the virological and hospital indicators are down,” confirms Public Health France in its latest epidemiological bulletin. Thus, in mainland France, “the incidence and positivity rate is decreasing in all age groups and in all regions”. On Sunday, 45,328 positive cases were identified. And the daily average over seven days, an interval which sheds light on the real evolution of the epidemic, rose to 50,646 cases, against 57,500 cases seven days earlier. A downward trend which is also confirmed in the Overseas Territories, but “the indicators [sont] still high in Reunion “, tempers the health agency.

A decrease in contamination which is accompanied by a drop in hospital pressure. According to the latest figures, the critical care services received 2,079 patients (including 28 admissions), against 2,491 the previous week. In intensive care units, there is a “decrease of around 400 to 500 patients per week”, underlined Olivier Véran, welcoming that hospitals are no longer forced to deprogram other care. Thus, “the decline is accentuated, it is growing”, he rejoiced. Enough to keep to the schedule mentioned on February 20 by the Minister of Health, who assured that “by mid-March, hospital and epidemic conditions will allow us to remove the mask inside and to remove all or part of the vaccination pass where it is still in force today”.

“We will be more than vigilant”

But the virus, which has always distinguished itself by its unpredictability, could still hold surprises. So “if a new variant appears and is more dangerous, we will be more than vigilant,” reaffirmed the minister. In the meantime, it is the even more contagious Omicron BA.2 sub-variant that is progressing. Omicron thus represented “99.6% of interpretable sequences” in the latest Flash survey carried out in mid-February by Public Health France. And in this quasi-monopoly of Omicron, its BA.2 sub-lineage continues to progress: it represented 25% of cases, against 15.4% a week earlier.

For the time being, nothing to call into question the easing of restrictions. On condition, however, of falling below the threshold of 1,500 patients hospitalized in intensive care, said Olivier Véran. A tenable objective, since the latest models from the Institut Pasteur expect 1,000 to 1,500 Covid patients in critical care by mid-March. The estimates by Guillaume Rozierfounder of CovidTracker, rather revolve around the 1,750 still in intensive care on this date.

High vaccination coverage and arrival of spring

This upcoming lifting of restrictions is also favored by the high vaccination coverage in France. According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Health, 79.3% of the population has a complete primary vaccination course. And 72.5% of those over 18 received a booster dose. However, Public Health France insists on “the importance of combined measures: complete vaccination schedule, as well as compliance with the recommended measures”. If the obligation to wear a mask will only apply in public transport, hand washing and frequent ventilation of closed places must always be observed.

What constitutes a shield making it possible to immunize the most vulnerable against the serious forms of the virus and, by extension, to protect the 19.6% of unvaccinated French people: the famous collective immunity. A factor which, combined with the arrival of spring, should accompany the continued decline in the circulation of the virus over the coming weeks. “The hypothesis that we have been advancing for a long time now is that Covid-19 becomes a seasonal virus, reminded 20 Minutes Dr Benjamin Davido, infectious disease specialist at Raymond-Poincaré hospital in Garches (Hauts-de-Seine) . From now on, when we are in the seasonality of the virus, from the fall, we will have these automatisms of respecting barrier gestures, of doing your vaccination reminder and wearing the mask indoors ”.

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