Martín Guzmán when reporting yesterday the principle of agreement with the IMF. denied that there is an adjustment
The collective feeling in the world of politics – and also business and the “markets” – is that the fall into the abyss has been avoided. From there, there are different evaluations and questions: for now, according to some; with a high cost, according to the discomfort registered even in official ranks; It will be seen when the agreement with the IMF is signed “seriously”. For now, Together for Change moved carefully, dissident Peronism took its distance and the extreme “liberals” and the left questioned harshly. Foreseeable. The initial silence of Kirchnerism was exposed more densely. The official attempt to make up the adjustment contemplated it in advance. And the presidential speech, too.
Alberto Fernández and later Martín Guzmán sought to highlight two aspects of the principle of understanding with the Fund. The first, with consensus, was to avoid what the Government itself evaluated as a catastrophe scenario. That was also endorsed with the specific gesture of paying the maturity of more than 700 million dollars yesterday. The second, with a similar emphasis, deny an adjustment.
The day of the President closed last night with the broadcast of an interview in which he resumed the speech of strong criticism of the IMF, not only with the claim of self-criticism for the credit granted during the administration of Mauricio Macri, but also for his role in the region . It sounded like a message to the world of the internal, the front of greatest tension due to the effects of the deal that is outlined with the international organization.
The Supreme Court in the only formal meeting with Martín Soria. The minister then criticized the judges
By then, the officials closest to the President had been interpreting for hours about the silence of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her circle. And there were signs that Olivos interpreted that the tension was inevitable. Strictly speaking, a day before, the message had been to disqualify the discourse of a certain Kirchnerism that exposed default as the best alternative. Until last night, the only voice close to the CFK circuit -despite the wear and tear caused by the electoral defeat- was that of Axel Kicillof. The governor avoided open support: he tweeted that a catastrophe was avoided and focused on a new charge on Macri.
In the ranks of hard-core Kirchnerism, disgust would prevail over what the principle of agreement with the IMF entails. They see a horizon of adjustment, they believe that it legitimizes the debt and that it closes the path to complaints about political and “criminal” responsibilities regarding its consequences. That, with the addition of what a quarterly monitoring of technicians from the international organization could mean. And with discomfort due to lurching by the Government in foreign policy, especially with respect to Venezuela, in the context of seeking political endorsement from Washington to smooth out the negotiation with the Fund.
We would have to wait for the final statement about the negotiations with the IMF, which yesterday showed progress but not completion. The effective instrumentation of the staggered reduction of the fiscal deficit and the turn that it would entail in monetary matters, in addition to price policies in the face of escalating inflation, is a question mark. The Fund’s statement added the issue of tariffs and real positive interest rates.
There is at least one point of convergence in the domestic concerns of Olivos and hard-line Kirchnerism. It is about the limits of the line to spread and try to impose the reading of the debt as an exclusive problem of the macrista management. And it is not reduced to the discussion about the origins -that is, the succession of inheritances in the list of debts and deficits-, but it begins to include the very path of this administration. There are several works by consultants that investigate this point, even before the last elections.
It is clear that the specific lines of this discussion with the IMF have not yet been fully written. Once the specific points and not only the titles have been closed, it will be time to write the chapter of the letter of intent and memorandum of understanding. Only then would he go to Congress for his treatment. And the executive board of the IMF will have to give its last word.
In this final stage, which may last a few weeks, the ruling party will pay attention to the public debate. And above all, it will seek to order its internal positions, beyond the burden on the opposition, which at the same time and for now with that tone demands legislative commitment. Meanwhile, some signs indicate that other areas of political dispute will be sought to help close ranks. And there stands out the offensive on the judicial front.
In the midst of the vertigo of recent days due to the negotiations with the Fund -and also, with the administration of Joe Biden-, the government’s virtual nod to the movement of Kirchnerist sectors against the Supreme Court was overshadowed. The formal message is that the march scheduled for next Tuesday is not endorsed, but the critical presidential position of the President on the Court was recalled. A way to frame it.
It is curious what happens with this call. It has generated some inmates among the organizers, in the CGT and even in social organizations that play their chips in one way or another on the official board. But he did not expose the government’s public displeasure about the support of some officials, in particular the Vice Minister of Justice, Juan Martín Mena, and the AFI intervener, Cristina Caamaño. On the contrary, the official letter was the following: he does not support marches, but he remembers the context that the presidential criticisms of the Court represent.
The message is twofold: it targets judges and domestic needs.
Alberto Fernández: “The IMF has to make a much deeper criticism of its permanent policy” After the agreement with the IMF, Albertism feels that it came out politically strengthened Lula Da Silva praised the agreement with the IMF and highlighted “the leadership of my friend Alberto Fernandez”