Ukraine, is a compromise still possible between Westerners and Russians?

Andreï Kortounov. / Russian International Affairs Council

Vladimir Putin cannot afford to emerge defeated

Andrei Kortunov

Director of the Russian International Affairs Council, a Russian think tank on international issues in Moscow

With the American responses to Russian demands now received, Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin has two possible strategies: either choose the path of compromise, or pursue the balance of power. The Kremlin has set the bar high by asking the West for a treaty banning any enlargement of NATO, in particular to Ukraine, and a renunciation of military deployments in Eastern Europe. He played a classic chess move, being able to anticipate the opponent’s next move because he knew the Westerners’ response would be negative.

The game now becomes more complex because, as a response to the American response, the Kremlin must imagine a movement out of the classic moves. Logic dictates that Moscow should opt for a solution based on the strategy of compromise: the proposals received from Washington are certainly below Russian expectations, but they are better than nothing and at least allow progress on the control of nuclear weapons, to limit the scale of the military exercises in Eastern Europe and to relaunch the NATO-Russia dialogue. The Kremlin will have to present this compromise as a Russian victory because, after weeks of tension with the West, Vladimir Putin cannot afford to emerge defeated. If there is a withdrawal of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border, it will therefore only be partial and conditional. The compromise that the president could accept will have to be well balanced and, above all, well presented. But the other option, that of continuing the showdown, cannot be ruled out. The Kremlin can answer: in our proposals, it’s all or nothing! I still think he won’t opt ​​for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But he can find other military solutions which, in his eyes, would amount to a form of compromise: rather than an escalation in Ukraine, an increase in tensions with the West to reinforce the feeling of insecurity in the West . This can take place in Europe, South America, Africa… Everything is possible: from missiles deployed in Cuba to the intervention of Wagner’s militias in Burkina Faso. Among all these options, Vladimir Putin has no doubt already made his choice because, since the announcement of his demands, he could anticipate the responses of the West and foresee what will happen next.

The president is the only one to decide the general line to be applied by his ministers of defense and foreign affairs. Upstream, beyond the Security Council in the Kremlin, half a dozen men advise him. Almost all of them come from the same circles of the security services. Diplomats will certainly push for dialogue, and the military for confrontation. But the decision-making process is no longer collegial as in the days of the USSR, where a Brezhnev could be contradicted by others within the Politburo. Only Putin will decide on the compromise to get out of this crisis.

Collected by Benjamin Quénelle (in Moscow)