The ‘Draghi Short Circuit’ in Italian Politics

The problem and the solution to the challenges of the coming times in Italy bear the same name: Mario Draghi. The current president of the Council of Ministers would not see badly being president of the Republic. Or at least he has not denied it, as he did seven years ago when his name was called. “I am a grandfather at the service of the Republic,” he slipped when asked about it a few weeks ago. It is a prestigious name, generates an important unanimity and has all the qualities to be one. It is the solution to the next seven years in the Quirinal Palace, whose president is elected as of January 24. The problem is that his appointment – it would be the first time that a prime minister has become the presidency of the Republic directly – would leave a position vacant for which no one is able to find a replacement and could cause a short-circuit that would end with early elections and return. to the classic Italian turbulence. More and more voices are calling for him to stay where he is: inside and outside of Italy.

The legislature has not ended (a year and a half to go) and there are still pending reforms to be carried out. Also the beginning of the deployment of the Recovery Plan with European funds – from Brussels we are closely watching what Italy can do with the more than 200,000 million euros allocated – and the new phase of the battle against covid-19. Draghi himself, who has given the country stability and international credibility this year, presented some of those challenges at a press conference last Monday. But nobody knows if in two weeks he will continue to be the prime minister of Italy, if the government will fall or if everything will continue exactly as it is (that would happen because the current head of state, Sergio Mattarella, agreed to extend his mandate at age 80, as requested more and more voices).

The uncertainty, for the first time in a year, is total. Small signals come from abroad and the risk premium has risen 30 points since October. The former president of the ECB, a teacher detecting the changing mood of the markets, alleges that the legislature will continue to move forward whether or not he is in charge of the Executive. But it seems complicated. Even more so if the need of some members of this Government, such as Matteo Salvini, to mark their own profile is taken care of, distancing themselves from the unitary line of recent months. Especially if Draghi, who was approached a year ago for his enormous prestige and impartiality, is no longer the unifier of that majority.

Parliamentarians are increasingly convinced that the solution to avoid chaos – or the fall of the Executive – is to convince Mattarella to extend his term. “The fundamental problem is that Draghi will not be able to find a substitute to finish the legislature calmly. If you choose a technician such as the Minister of Economy [Daniele Franco] it will appear that he wants to handle you from the Quirinal. And a politician will be difficult for the rest of the parties to accept. So voting for him would mean going to elections. And the parliamentarians, whose majority would not repeat after this legislature, are not willing to happily commit suicide, “says a veteran and expert Democratic Party deputy.

Mattarella has already said publicly that he does not want to repeat. But in his environment it has been pointed out for months that if the situation were extreme and endangered the good progress of the country, he could consider extending his mandate for some time as a service to the Republic.

The latest to demand that the current prime minister remain in office has been Silvio Berlusconi, who is now threatening to become an agent of chaos if his wishes are not met. Il Cavaliere has insisted on being President of the Republic and absolutely no one around him dares to tell him that it might not be a good idea. He is 85 years old, has gone through several legal proceedings (some are still underway) and his biography weighs a firm conviction and a disqualification for tax fraud. At first, most took it as an extravagant hypothesis that restored the flavor of the late twentieth century to current politics. Now, however, it has become a monumental problem for the right-wing coalition (Liga, Forza Italia and Hermanos de Italia), which risks disintegrating as Il Cavaliere tries at all costs to win support.

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Berlusconi has activated his machinery and on Tuesday he settled in Rome to campaign – it is the first in the history of the Republic to do so in such a blatant way – and to seduce possible undecided parliamentarians from other parties. Beyond his name, the right now has no other clear candidate. He does not allow it. But none of his partners like him, including many members of Forza Italia. The problem is that the three-time prime minister has already started with the threats. If they do not propose to him, he will break the coalition, they say in his environment. And if Draghi were finally chosen, he launched himself on Monday afternoon, he will cause a tsunami in the Unity Executive by removing the three ministers from his party and creating a situation of difficult balance that would lead to early elections.

In the ranks of the League and Brothers of Italy they begin to lose patience with the matter. “It is a huge problem for the center-right,” says one of the heavyweights of the coalition. “He is stubborn and wants to do it at all costs, but it is an absurd idea. Now he blackmails us that if he is not supported, he will blow up the coalition. And on Monday he dared to extort money from Draghi too ”, insists this parliamentarian. “It has generated a tremendous blockage. And if he were president, it would be a problem, also for the center-right and for the country. Imagine the risk premium… But unfortunately you have possibilities. Right now there is a Parliament full of people who will not repeat in office and who are willing to listen to his proposal ”.

The members of the two Chambers meet in Montecitorio (the Chamber of Deputies) as of February 24. There are 950 parliamentarians to which are added the senators for life. All under rules that allow lengthening to infinity the daily voting – it is not yet known whether it will vote on Saturday and Sunday as well – to reach an agreement and in which the quorum necessary falls as fruitless progress is made towards the choice of the candidate. In the first three, two thirds are needed: that is, 673 out of 1008 parliamentarians. From the fourth, serve only half plus one. This is where surprises can come.

Berlusconi’s environment believes that he can count on the numbers, especially if he manages to fish in the mixed group and in the ranks of the discontented of the 5 Star Movement. And the reality is that the situation of lockdown, added to the casualties that may be due to covid on the days of the voting, can benefit you.

A vote threatened by the covid

The ritual for the vote of the President of the Republic is one of the most colorful and important institutional ceremonies in Italy. The parliamentarians of the two chambers, added to the regional representatives, parade through the Chamber of Deputies in a daily vote until the necessary quorum is reached — two-thirds in the first three rounds and an absolute majority in the rest.

The Constitution is strict in the methods and does not allow either to postpone the date once it has been fixed by the president of the Chamber of Deputies. The problem is that the numbers of COVID infections in Italy are skyrocketing and it is expected that around 10% of the 1,008 parliamentarians summoned will have to be absent on one of the days during which it lasts.

Those responsible for the cameras have not yet established any alternative. Solutions such as a kind of hotel for positive people with the right to vote or telematic suffrage have been proposed in the media, but it does not seem that they will prosper.

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