With corona, hunger is back in Brazil and that makes Bolsonaro’s fate uncertain

The tip of a razor-sharp knife glides smoothly through the white flesh of a ray. Blood spatters on a mountain of ice with large fish. “Can someone pass the knife?” Marisa Soares (48) calls as she picks up two fish and smells it. It’s Friday afternoon in the Irajá neighborhood, in the far north of Rio de Janeiro. Behind the daily market and beyond a large open shed, hangs the sweet smell of fruit and the penetrating smoke of fish. The remains of various markets are dumped here: unsold vegetables, fruit and huge amounts of leftover fish.

The needy come to this municipal food dump for food that would otherwise go to the garbage. It has just rained, a group of women are bending over large puddles to a new load of fish, which has just been dumped on the paving stones. Hands push each other away, grabbing for fish. “You have to be quick here to find the best,” Soares says as she drags her loot, a plastic bag full of white flatfish, behind her.

At first, Soares was ashamed to look for food in this place. But out of sheer necessity, she quickly got over it. “I survive from what I find here. I don’t have the money to go to the supermarket.” She lost her job as a clothing salesperson during the pandemic and now she can barely afford her rent and electricity and struggles to care for her four children. “Everything has become so expensive in the store.”

Millions of Brazilians, like Soares, have fallen into poverty during the pandemic. The country is in a major economic crisis. Brazil was already one of the most unequal countries in the world. Since the corona crisis, hunger has returned, which had been almost completely eradicated years earlier. Before the corona crisis, the economy was already deteriorating, and now unemployment has risen to almost 15 percent and the value of the real, the national currency, has plummeted. Inflation has risen to 11 percent and prices in the shops are skyrocketing.

Electoral punishment threatens

The administration of President Jair Bolsonaro seems to have no answer to the vexing problems. His disastrous corona policy and the economic crisis could prove fatal for the far-right politician in the presidential elections in October. Bolsonaro refused to take any harsh measures. He has downplayed the virus from the start, profiling himself as an antivaxer. In the meantime, the infections have risen and Brazil is one of the worst affected countries in the world with more than 600,000 corona deaths.

Visitors to the food distribution center Irajá pick up fish. Photo Ian Cheibub

Although the number of infections has fallen sharply in the past few months and almost 70 percent of the 212 million Brazilians have now been vaccinated, the consequences of the corona malaise at the food dump in Irajá are clearly visible. Alesandra Lacerda (33) pushes a shopping cart full of oranges, potatoes and pumpkins in front of her. Until last year she worked in a restaurant that went bankrupt during the crisis. “I come here every two weeks and stuff my cart. I live in the west of Rio and will soon be taking the bus back home. It takes up to an hour during rush hour. But at least I have food,” she says.

According to recent polls by the renowned research firm Datafolha, Bolsonaro will be judged electorally in October because of the bad economy and his approach to corona. If there were elections now, he would get between 22 and 26 percent of the vote. His great rival Luiz ‘Lula’ da Silva, who was president between 2003 and 2011, would come out on top with his social-democratic Workers’ Party (PT) (48 percent).

Because of corona, our president couldn’t show what he’s worth

Jose Luis Filho Aanhanger Bolsonaro

In 2018, Lula also led the way in the polls, but then he was sentenced to 12 years in prison and ended up in prison for corruption and money laundering. However, the Supreme Court ruled last year that the trial was biased and overturned his convictions. With Lula and Bolsonaro leading the polls, Brazilians face exciting and polarized elections. They are also the talk of the town in Irajá.

“O Mito it remains for me,” says José Luis Filho, a sixty-year-old man who, according to himself, grew up in poverty. mito [de mythe], that’s what Bolsonaro is called by his fans. Filho has seen the food place change over the past year. It is no longer only the poorest like him that come here. Also hard-working workers and middle-class people who can no longer make ends meet. Young, old, families, black, white, mixed, a diverse mix Brazilians are walking around this Friday afternoon.

Among the visitors 60-year-old José Luis Filho. Photo Ian Cheibub

But the crisis cannot be blamed on Bolsonaro, Filho believes. “Our president has not been able to show what he is worth now that corona is reigning. After his first year, the pandemic already broke out, can’t anyone beat that? Bolsonaro must be given another chance!”

Also read: No country appears immune to the corona chaos in which Bolsonaro is sinking Brazil

Beside him, Alesandra Lacerda shakes her head furiously, inspecting a mountain of yellow passion fruit. “Vote for that guy? On Bolsonaro? nunca! Never. Bolsonaro has done nothing for us. Do you know how many family members I have already lost to corona? My mother passed away, two nieces and an uncle,” she hisses.

Opportunities for the middle

Although the highly polarized election campaign this year seems to be mainly between Lula and Bolsonaro (both have yet to officially stand for nomination), polls show that about a third of Brazilians don’t like either of them. The economic elite and investors would also lose faith in Bolsonaro, who is not fulfilling his promises of economic reform and is pushing up government spending with monthly corona payments for the poor, which he wants to commit in this election year.

In addition, Bolsonaro suffers from a bad international image due to its destructive environmental policies and the increase in deforestation in the Amazon. Important economic cooperation such as the trade agreement between the South American trading bloc Mercosur and the EU, which has been negotiated for more than twenty years, is under pressure because of Bolsonaro.

But the left-wing Lula da Silva is also mistrusted by many Brazilians. While the charges against him have been overturned by the Supreme Court, for many Brazilians his PT is inextricably linked to the major corruption scandal Lava Jato (‘car wash’). Investors also fear that government spending and debt will rise further if the left returns to power.

Visitors to the food distribution center cut fish. Photo Ian Cheibub

A third way—no Lula and no Bolsonaro—offers Brazil’s powerful center-right bloc, the so-called centrão (center). Sergio Moro is mentioned as a possible candidate of one of these middle parties. The former judge and anti-corruption officer had many political and financial leaders imprisoned from 2014 during Operation Lava Jato, making himself immensely popular.

Moro was also responsible for the 2018 conviction of former president Lula, but the magistrate was discredited when leaked apps and text messages revealed that he had colluded with investigators to get Lula convicted. With Lula behind bars, Bolsonaro managed to win the election, and Moro subsequently became justice minister in his cabinet. But the two clashed, Moro stepped down and will now potentially join the race as the third candidate.

Meanwhile, Lula and Bolsonaro also try to get the center behind them. For example, Lula may want to recruit a former centre-right opponent (Geraldo Alckmin) as his vice president.

Also read: With fueling revolt, Bolsonaro is borrowing from Trump

Trumpiaans scenario

But October is still far away. Should the economy recover and the corona figures continue to fall, it is possible that Bolsonaro will win the election, despite his low popularity now. And if he loses, the question is whether the president and his fanatical supporters will accept a possible defeat. Analysts and critics are anticipating a possible “January 6 scenario” — referring to the day in 2021 when supporters of outgoing President Trump stormed the Capitol in Washington. “Only God can take me out of this position,” Bolsonaro said during a speech recently.

José Luis Fereira (58), the man who in his white coat and rubber wellies lugs the last tubs of fish for this Friday out of a truck, hopes God has the best for his country. “And then as far as I’m concerned, Lula should win, he’s our only rescue. But now I first hope that people take these last fish quickly, otherwise they will go to the garbage,” he says.

A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of January 11, 2022

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