Almost 7 million Argentines have not yet received the second dose. Has the country reached the vaccination ceiling?

“In the 18 to 39-year-old group is where the largest number of people are who have a dose and did not apply the second despite the availability of vaccines” (Reuters)

Of the total number of vaccines applied in the country, according to the latest data available in the Public Vaccination Monitor, the online registry of the Ministry of Health that shows in real time the immunization operation throughout the Argentine territory, 36,850,139 correspond to first doses, 30,145,220 to second doses and 2,274,519 are third doses or booster doses, according to appropriate, attentive to the recommendations issued by the health portfolio.

From the data, one emerges that draws attention and worries specialists: 6,897,609 people applied the first dose of any of the vaccines to prevent COVID-19 available in the country, but they did not receive their second dose.

If it is analyzed by age group, and taking into account that the population under 18 years of age began to be vaccinated less than a month ago, it can be seen that, among people between 18 and 99 years old, 30,067,856 received the first dose (what reaching almost 95% of that group), while 26,243,723 completed their vaccination schedule, a figure that barely exceeds 80% in the same population.

The data comes from the site covidstats.com.ar and in dialogue with Infobae, its creator, Systems engineer and expert data analyst Mauro Infantino, recognized that “there is a gap between the first and second doses applied in the country and that difference increases more as age decreases. ”. “We do not know very well why there are people who are not going to get the second dose,” he emphasized.

In Argentina, 6,897,609 people applied the first dose of any of the available vaccines to prevent COVID-19, but did not go to receive their second dose (Source: covidstats)

Thus, it can be seen, for example, that in the 40-49 age group, of the 5,546,904 people who received the first dose, 4,995,709 applied the second.

“This gap is not observed so much in that group,” Infantino continued. While in the age group that ranges from 30 to 39 years it is already noticeable ”. There, 6,065,014 citizens began their immunization against the coronavirus, but 5,138,310 completed it. “There you begin to see how the speed of growth of the curve stagnates and stopped growing,” Infantino analyzed.

In the population aged 18 to 29 years, it can be seen that the difference is greater, and that while 7,431,256 have one dose, almost two million fewer (that is, 5,648,752) came close to receiving their second dose.

For the infectious disease doctor Eduardo López (MN 37586), “the 18 to 39 age group is the most reluctant to get vaccinated.” In dialogue with this medium, the specialist pointed out that “this group is where the largest number of people are who have one dose and did not apply the second despite the availability of vaccines.”

On the causes that could lead to such conduct, in his opinion, “are multiple.” And he began to analyze: “On the one hand, it could be because they do not visualize that the pandemic continues and this is so wrong that a new variant has just appeared that quickly produced an increase in cases in South Africa and turns on a yellow light in Argentina because there are already cases in Brazil ”.

It is in the population aged 18 to 29 that the difference between the first and second doses applied can best be seen (Source: covidstats)

“The second cause,” López continued, “is the decrease in the number of cases in the country, so they probably assume that the disease is controlled, however, if the curve of the last weeks is analyzed, a slight but consistent increase can be seen and in the group where more infections are registered it is precisely between the ages of 19 and 50 ”.

And after highlighting that “in this band are the people who made self-care measures more flexible, since they wear less chinstraps, go to meetings, etc.”, the specialist opined: “As it is a group that has low mortality, they visualize a disease benign, but the truth is that they can infect vulnerable individuals ”.

Jorge Aliaga is a doctor in physics, researcher at the Conicet and secretary of Planning at the National University of Hurlingham, and before consulting Infobae, he considered that “it can also influence that today the activity is normal, and in many jobs the day is discounted if the person has to miss to get vaccinated ”.

On the recent implementation in Tucumán of a health pass, which requires a complete two-dose scheme to attend events, cinemas, bowling alleys and gyms, and the massive turnout of citizens to vaccinations in the last hours, as reflected in the media of that province, Aliaga said that “probably those who did not complete their scheme are not people who are anti-vaccines, but perhaps they gave themselves a dose and had COVID and they believe that it is not urgent and they are letting it pass.”

For Nacinovich, “we must emphasize that people are fully vaccinated since the more people are vaccinated, the less vulnerable people there will be” (Reuters)

In this sense, the biochemist, doctor in Chemical Sciences, Conicet researcher and professor at the Faculty of Chemical Sciences of the National University of Córdoba Rodrigo Quiroga, stated that “it is key to communicate the importance of that second dose”, which in his opinion “ it is not being done in a sufficient way ”. And on the causes that could lead someone who received the first vaccine to not complete the scheme, he considered: “The idea began to circulate on WhatsApp that if someone was infected and the first dose was applied, they are protected, which is not so because it is really known that the second dose, even in people who already had the disease, greatly increases the immune response in terms of magnitude and duration over time ”.

In the opinion of the infectious disease doctor and member of the Vaccine Commission of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (Sadi) Francisco Nacinovich (75,823), “the intervals between the doses of the vaccines are usually arbitrary; strategies are implemented that are supposed to be the most reasonable but over time it was learned, for example in the case of COVID-19, that AstraZeneca instead of giving the second dose per month as had been the initial studies, is better at the eight or 12 weeks ”.

“And in general, with the vaccines that are on the National Calendar, if someone forgot to give the second dose, the schedules are never restarted, but rather they are completed,” said the specialist. So, the fact that there is a lot of space between the doses is not as relevant as that the person completes the scheme ”. For him, “we must emphasize that people are fully vaccinated since the more people are vaccinated, the less vulnerable people there will be.”

For the infectious disease doctor Eduardo López, “the 18 to 39 age group is the most reluctant to get vaccinated”

After ensuring that “the only way to reduce the appearance of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is to increase vaccination”, López said that “no one disputes that the second dose is essential to face the Delta variant”, and predicted that In his opinion, “the final concept of a complete vaccination will be with three doses.”

“Between 90 and 95% of positive samples that are sequenced in the country correspond to the Delta variant, which is already known to have high transmissibility and has a high capacity to evade the immune system,” the infectologist continued. The scenario that will have to be looked at is what will happen to Ómicron; today there is consensus that more is transmitted but there is no information on how this impacts the available vaccines and it is being studied if they respond ”.

One fact that calls López’s attention is that “it would seem that Ómicron would increase the possibility of reinfection, since the trend shows that individuals who have already been infected are infected with this variant. At least that is seen in Africa with a low percentage of vaccination, which reinforces the need to be vaccinated ”.

And after highlighting that “as it is precisely known that the efficacy of all vaccines against the Delta variant decreased”, Nacinovich remarked that “it is important to complete the schedules and that people later access the additional or booster doses.”

“We do not know what will happen to Ómicron, we do not know if it is more harmful, since the fact that it has many mutations does not mean that it is more transmissible or more dangerous,” said the expert, for whom “in the face of the Holidays and On vacation, in addition to being properly vaccinated, it is important that people continue to take proper care of themselves, that is, wear a mask in closed places, maintain social distance, etc., since although of course the vaccine is a fundamental tool, it is key that people continue to understand that the pandemic did not end ”.

“We have the age group between 18 and 39 who have missed the second dose shifts, and that is surely because they perceive that they have less risk,” said Minister Vizzotti (Photo: Adrián Escandar)

On whether the country reached the vaccination ceiling, Aliaga said that “there is still room for improvement” (of vaccination rates). And in that sense, for him, “it would be necessary to do two things: on the one hand, favor the application as much as possible, letting it be free, without a shift, applying in massive events, and also going to the neighborhoods and looking for those who They need to complete schedules, and on the other hand, putting some limitation to do certain things without having full vaccination, such as going to mass events ”.

Along the same lines, according to López, “there are two somewhat compulsive but necessary ways in the face of a pandemic to increase vaccination rates.” And he stated: “I think the health pass is necessary; This leads to people having to be vaccinated if they want to maintain certain social activities in public places, and on the other hand, mandatory vaccination should be analyzed ”.

In this regard, the Minister of Health, Carla Vizzotti, referred yesterday at a press conference in the province of Santa Fe, where she announced that the health pass that seeks to continue to encourage vaccination against the coronavirus “will surely be next week.” “What he seeks is that we take care of each other, put into relevance what it means to complete the vaccination schedules,” said the official, who considered that “there is no resistance to vaccination in the majority of society, but after having After the second wave and the perception of risk so high, there are some people who did not prioritize getting vaccinated and this strategy is to stimulate vaccination ”.

“We have the age group between 18 and 39 who have missed the second dose shifts, and that is surely because they perceive that they have less risk and because the epidemiological situation is very favorable,” he pointed out. The message for this age group is that it is essential to receive the second dose, to reinforce immunity so that when viral circulation increases, we are all as immune as possible ”.

KEEP READING

The problem of pending second doses: “We have to look for those people who have not been vaccinated again,” the experts agree. COVID vaccines: What is the difference between a third additional or booster dose? week COVID-19 infections increased by 40% in Argentina

---