Manzur did not convince Wall Street investors and prepares a meeting alone with Alberto Fernández in Buenos Aires

Juan Manzur accompanied by Martín Guzmán and Jorge Argüello met with Wall Street investors in Argentina

Juan Manzur met an audience of Wall Street investors who exhibited their distrust of the official negotiation strategy with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which until now has rejected all the agreement proposals designed by Alberto Fernández and executed by Martín Guzmán.

The Chief of Staff, accompanied by the Minister of Economy, spoke yesterday in New York in front of investors operating in Argentina. Despite his tone and enthusiasm, Manzur was unable to convince an expert audience who has already listened to Cristina Fernández, Mauricio Macri, Axel Kicillof and Nicolás Dujovne.

“When are they going to close with the IMF?” The investors asked.

-We are negotiating, and our political will is to honor the debt. – Manzur answered.

“But when?” Wall Street bondholders replied.

“We are negotiating,” Manzur insisted.

The absence of a definitive answer consolidated the distrust of investors working in Manhattan. It is not a state secret that Argentina must pay a capital installment of $ 18 billion to the IMF in March 2022, and that these items are not even budgeted for next year’s fiscal year.

Alberto Fernández demands better conditions to pay the total debt of 44,000 million dollars contracted by Macri. The President wants longer terms and lower interest and surcharges, a political claim that the IMF has no intention of accepting.

Towards the end of October there will be a G20 Summit in Rome and Alberto Fernández will insist with his proposal before the main world leaders. Argentina does not have reserves to face next year’s payments -18,000 million dollars-, and the only solution is a political response from the G20 that breaks the resistance of certain countries that predominate on the board of the IMF.

The United States, Germany and Japan are not yet willing to consider a reduction in surcharges – they involve $ 1 billion – and doubt the possibility of using the G7 Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to cancel the debt that Macri accepted in 2018 ($ 44 billion).

This complex geopolitical and financial situation is known to Manzur and Wall Street investors. Both parties, each in their own style, played Cat and Mouse when they met at the New York Consulate: the Chief of Staff trying not to cause further alarm, and the bondholders trying to ratify – in an official and reserved conclave – the information that they already handled through their fluid contacts in Washington.

Juan Manzur with Jorge Argüello, Martín Guzmán and the consul in New York before the meeting with Wall Street investors

In addition to a possible default with the International Monetary Fund, investors asked about the stability of the Government after the legislative elections on November 14. The Manhattan bondholders discount the defeat of the Frente de Todos and know what happened in the days after the victory of Together for Change in the PASO.

“We are Peronists. I took a plane, and I came to New York to talk to you. We face the issues, ”Manzur said when asked about the possible political effects on the Government in the face of a new electoral decline.

“What will happen to the government after the elections?” Insisted an investor who has already seen Macri and Dujovne pass through the New York consulate.

– We are going to continue in the Government, we have two years of mandate. That is why the people chose us-, the Chief of Staff closed.

Manzur knows Wall Street investors. And he assumes his distrust, strengthened by the constant economic and political crises that Argentina has starred in since 2001. He knew that his meeting in New York would be complicated and with few immediate results, and when the conclave ended, he surprised the audience.

“Why don’t you come to Argentina and see what we’re doing?” Manzur suggested with his Tucumán smile.

In the main hall of the Consulate there were occasional responses. These investors travel with some assiduity to Buenos Aires, read the local media and receive papers with the state of the economy, and they do not have much time to lose in Argentina.

Manzur will let the elections pass and will then set a date for the investor trip. To convince the most reluctant bondholders, the Chief of Staff will include a bonus track: a meeting alone with Alberto Fernández at the Casa Rosada, a few weeks before the deadline to pay the IMF.

Investors agreed to answer.

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