What is the impact of the cooling of temperatures on the evolution of Covid-19? A possible relaxation of barrier gestures or a decrease in the effectiveness of vaccines? While the mask is no longer mandatory in primary schools in 61 departments, the lifting of the health pass has been mentioned but postponed indefinitely and doctors fear a drop in the number of PCR tests with the end of their free admission, the Institut Pasteur has taken several scenarios into account in its latest models and displays “cautious optimism”.
Pasteur anticipates in particular “a vaccination coverage of 81% in adolescents and 90% in adults during December”. It expects a variation in transmission rates linked to climatic conditions of between 20% and 40%. As for the efficacy of vaccines and its impact of the Delta variant, the Institut Pasteur hypothesizes that vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization by 95%.
No return to curfew
“These models lead to cautious optimism”, write the specialists of the Institute. “Thanks to the high vaccination coverage, it will not be necessary a priori to reinstate very restrictive measures such as curfews or confinement”. If the current measures and behaviors are maintained, he therefore does not expect a “significant resumption of the epidemic, even when the cooling of temperatures is taken into account”.
However, the Institute does not rule out scenarios “the decrease in vaccine efficacy over time or the emergence of a new variant”, nor a relaxation of barrier gestures, which would be “likely to degrade these projections” and to “generate significant pressure on the hospital system”.
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