By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES, Sep 20 (Reuters) – Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have advanced a strong 17.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year, mainly explained by the sharp contraction in GDP in the same period of 2020 affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the average of a Reuters poll.
Analysts consulted added that despite the important data that the second quarter would show, the variation against the first quarter would register a decrease given the restrictions imposed by the national government in that period to reduce the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Estimates among 14 local and foreign analysts also reflected a median with a similar improvement – 17.3% – for GDP in the interval between April and June 2021.
“In the second quarter of 2021, the level of activity (GDP) would have grown 17.3% year-on-year, compared to the same quarter of the previous year where the stricter quarantine impacted,” the consulting firm Ecolatina told Reuters.
Argentina recorded a 15.8% contraction in the second quarter of 2020, affected by the strong restrictions imposed by the national government to try to reduce COVID-19 infections.
The projections of the analysts surveyed ranged from a minimum advance of 14% to a maximum of 18% for GDP in the second quarter of the year.
“For the second quarter we project a seasonally adjusted fall of 1.6% against the previous quarter, as a result of the intensification of restrictions on mobility in the arrival of the second wave (of COVID-19),” said Lucio Garay Méndez, economist from the EcoGo consultancy.
“When contrasting with the activity floor in 2020, the interannual variation shows a recovery of 17.3% (…) the strong traction is given by the construction that flew in the second quarter of this year”, among other items he added.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), according to its publication calendar, will report the official GDP data for the second quarter of 2021 on Tuesday afternoon.
(Reporting by Hernán Nessi; Edited by Walter Bianchi)