Officially, more than 1,700,000 positive cases of COVID-19 have been detected in Spain. Those are the official figures of the Ministry of Health and, nevertheless, they are a small part of the real infected that Spain has had. Today, the fourth wave of the seroprevalence study of the Carlos III Health Institute comes to reaffirm it: according to the survey, 9.9% of the Spanish population has already had the virus.
That is, about 4.7 million people. Double than five months ago. With data from the second half of November, when this fourth round of the study was carried out, the current prevalence (percentage of people who currently have IgG antibodies detectable with the rapid test) stands at 7.1%. The cumulative prevalence (that is, counting those infected who no longer have antibodies) amounts to 9.9%.
Far from herd immunity
The communities with the highest cumulative prevalence are Madrid, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Navarra, Barcelona, Lleida and Zaragoza. Between them Three provinces stand out (Cuenca, Soria and Madrid) that are above 18% accumulated prevalence. Very high figures, but still far from those that would be needed to achieve herd immunity (above 40% according to the director of the National Epidemiology Center of the Carlos III Health Institute, Marina Pollán).
The differences are not only geographical. If we bring the magnifying glass closer to the data, we see that there are certain groups with rates much higher than the average. “A high prevalence is observed in certain groups, such as the health personnel, which reaches an accumulated global prevalence of almost 17% in the country as a whole. “Other groups with an outstanding prevalence are: caregivers of dependents, with 16%; cleaners, touching 14%; and workers in social and health establishments, around 13%.
Surely the most worrying data is that, as Marina Pollán said, they have “found a rate of possible active covid cases of 3.2% in the country as a whole that is much higher than the one we determined in round 3 (carried out in the month of June) which stood at 1.1% “. Something that by expected does not stop certifying that the virus is still very, very alive.